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10 key questions on the eurozone bailout

Is the rescue package merely a sticking-plaster solution for the gaping holes in Europe’s economy?

10 key questions on the eurozone bailout

The early morning announcement by European leaders on a bailout package for the eurozone temporarily soothed investors’ fears.

Markets have responded well, with French and German markets gaining 5% during the day and shares in UK-based Barclays rising 13%.

But many questions remain unanswered. Are the measures enough to ensure a longer-term recovery in the eurozone?

1. What are the details of the 'haircut' on Greek debt?

A voluntary 'haircut' of 50% on Greek bonds, in place of the 21% previously agreed, was outlined by leaders, but the exact details remain unclear.

It will hopefully reduce Greece’s debt load, which is currently 160% of GDP, to a sustainable level.

A voluntary haircut puts the banks in an unusual situation as they won’t be able to claim insurance or credit default swap (CDS) the unpaid bonds – see the next question for more on what this means for CDS.

2. Will this be the death of CDS?

Bankers have raised fears that an orderly default on Greek debt could see the end of CDS.

CDS is insurance on a loan that is paid out if a debtor defaults on a loan. The 'swap' element of this comes into play as the claiming party gives the insurer the defaulted loan in return for a pay-out on their insurance. The insurer may then call in the loan at some stage in the future.   

CDS is best known for the role it played in the 2008 banking crisis, when the CDS market was in rude health with a value of $62.2 trillion.

As creditors, like banks and other private investors, will have CDS on their Greek bond purchases, accepting a voluntary writedown of the debt means they won’t be making claims on their CDS.

The likelihood of this spelling the end of CDS is distant, as most defaults wouldn’t happen in such an orderly way.

3. What is the outlook for the Greek bailouts?

The plans on the table are to start a new round of Greek bailouts in early 2012, with an extra €100 billion in funds coming from the eurozone and IMF by 2014. The IMF has yet to agree to the new round of bailouts.

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22 comments so far. Why not have your say?

simon anslow

Oct 27, 2011 at 17:57

there are people who's glass is always half empty, try and be positive for a change

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82 yo

Oct 27, 2011 at 18:25

all legitable questions to be considered by sane people

we have plaster, buying us time, not solving any problems

of € or unsustainable debts leading to sovereign bankruptcy

of weak EU countries and some US States

None of the agreements have the necessary details

the hard fact is - the Germans said no to further cash gifts

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Myron Martin

Oct 27, 2011 at 18:26

Ok Simon, I will bite, I am positive that when it comes down to a choice between keeping a roof over your head and food on the table as opposed to paying interest on more DEBT, you and everyone else will choose food and shelter!

Since you are so positive, what makes you think that adding an additional layer of debt, whether it is Greece or any other country, will enable them to deal with an already excessive debt problem?

With our fractional reserve banking system bringing our money supply into existence as DEBT, requiring the payment of interest, extending the payback period only allows the debt to COMPOUND! Creating new debt to pay off old debt does nothing to solve the problem of an unworkable and badly flawed monetary system that is enslaving future generations.

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Alan Armstrong

Oct 27, 2011 at 18:31

It is not a question of just being positive, what we have here is a political statement of intent. The 'financial engineering' now required to deliver that intent as an achievement is decidedly ephemeral in nature.

I think in the end this sticking plaster "solution" will prove to be inadequate and the whole crisis will need to be faced up to again.

I give it less than 3 months and that is with my glass half full!!

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Stickler

Oct 27, 2011 at 18:39

Problem is far deeper than today's sovereign debt, how long will it take for the average Southern European to learn that paying Personal Tax is no longer an option but a standard, this could take a generation.

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82 yo

Oct 27, 2011 at 18:49

I do not know why the banks are celebrated, the shareholders are taking a 50% imposed/voluntary haircut on Greek bonds - is that a precedent for the future ? will it be adopted at some time in the UK ? and further capitalisation - who pays ?

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John cAROL

Oct 27, 2011 at 19:01

Maybe the plaster will stick until the next round of elections, then pulled off to plunge us deeper and persuade the electorate not to keep the tories. They then can have a breather and hand the whole sorry mess on to probably labour, who I give more of a chance of sorting it out in favour of the people in this country and not the beaurocrats and elite.

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william sloan

Oct 27, 2011 at 19:41

John , are you aware that Labour got us in to this mess in the first place ?

How was your sabbatical on planet Zog for 13 years ?

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John cAROL

Oct 27, 2011 at 21:26

William - This is my opinion and understanding only.

The tories sold off our assets - Gas, Elec, phones etc. so where did the revenue from those sales go? Make everyone a shareholding capitalist and the fat boys fatter. There were mass sell offs of council housing - where did that revenue go? What did the councils do with it? It certainly did not go into building more council houses. They advocated home ownership to the masses whose children now assume it to be the norm, even for lower paid, hence bigger and bigger borrowing.

I don't actually know if labour could do any better now but I do like their social policies. I know Brown sold off our gold but don't actually know any more about it. I honestly believe capitalism has failed and we need an enormous shake up, and most importantly honesty and correct information.

I know this is completely off subject and apologise for that. I'll probably shut up now and enjoy Zog for a while longer.

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snoekie

Oct 27, 2011 at 23:07

We are dealing with politicians who have been pontificating but doing sod all in the meantime.

Nothing has changed, and the answers are 2 miles down the road, politicians standing by the board changing the answers.

Trouble is we are in a good old fashioned London pea souper, and it will take a lot of time to get there and in the interim the answers will change according to the drift of the fog, minute by minute.

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Paul Eden

Oct 27, 2011 at 23:26

Is it German and French taxpayers who are paying for the losses incurred on the write down of Greek debts? Or the shareholders of the banks involved?

And won't Italy, Portugal, Spain and Ireland not also be expecting generous write-downs of their own debts similar to their Greek colleague? If this is the case will a one trillion euro fund be enough to stave off another crisis when the other weak euro economies present their debts?

If the structure of the eurozone countries is flawed fundamentally, isn't the same problem going to arise and the present turmoil be repeated at a later time?

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Minor Miracle

Oct 27, 2011 at 23:41

....good point Stickler getting back to the article. Too many answered questions and funny how the herd instinct has led global martkets in the last 24 hrs.

I fear the euphoria will be short lived - but maybe "global" joe public might start spending on non-consumables and a faint light might appear at the end of a very long tunnel....;-)

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SSJ

Oct 28, 2011 at 00:25

I wonder if the Chinese will appreciate the irony of investing in a SPIV? ;-)

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Rose G

Oct 28, 2011 at 09:10

John Carol

I do agree with your post about the tories to a certain extent, in that they have no idea of what to do about the situation.

I doubt even Ms Merkel knows what she has bitten off - when its been chewed some more, things will be no different than they were last week, but the stock market will have made & lost people fortunes, if unwise investments were made.

The message I am getting is that I should tighten my belt, but the banks need to take on ever more increasing debt - this is not a solution, it is administering CPR in the hope that the terminal comatosed patient won't flatline! The noises they are making seems to have caused buoyancy in the stock market, but then again, next week the party will be over, the hangover begins, & we will be no nearer to a solution than before, rock on!

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Jeremy Bosk

Oct 28, 2011 at 09:22

There is plenty of time for things to go wrong. Politicians have to sell the deal to their electorates - once everyone knows what the deal really is. Markets have to have faith in the political rhetoric being turned in to action or they will derail it. Elections may supervene and prevent intelligent action because the problems are too complex for the generality to comprehend and they have been let down too often to take things on trust.

We have a crisis of confidence which is worse than the actual debt problem. The debts can be managed by haircuts and by rescheduling provided there is ultimately some prospect of the crisis hit countries surviving as economic entities. Which means people in work and businesses in business able to pay taxes. If the Greek people (and others) see no hope of a better future they will have no motive to work for it. Too much austerity too fast will kill the patient. Dead people cannot pay their debts.

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Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'

Oct 28, 2011 at 09:49

The most interesting thing I have read through all this is that the 70 Banks all state they will all try to meet their new capital targets by selling assets, reducing their balance sheets and DELEVERAGING!

Everytime I see a politician complaining that the recession is down tot he Bank's not lending it makes me laugh. They are being told not to lend.

This will all get worse before it gets better, the EU leaders have kicked the can down the road. Growth is the only way to truly deal with the debt problems but the real economy still relies on debt to fund this and as you can see the Bank's aren't lending (hope nobody is expecting to a new loan from Santander anytime soon when they have a huge capital hole to plug).

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Jeremy Bosk

Oct 28, 2011 at 10:45

Anonymous1

Quite so. It is particularly interesting that they are all trying to sell their assets at once. Presumably they are selling their worst performing assets so who is buying and at what price? The Chinese cannot buy every unprofitable bank on Earth even if they were daft enough to want that.

The Irish NAMA is complaining about British and other banks selling off their Irish property portfolios at below the cost of demolition and rebuilding.

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Stella Arman

Oct 28, 2011 at 13:12

Without a north, south divide in the Euro and an even world wide corporate tax, there can be no solution to the ever mounting debt. The new EU solution is short term only and at best simply passing on the buck.

China would certainly come on board if there was a hope of stimulating growth and long-term solvency in the Euro-zone.

I wish I had followed a career in politics instead of music, but then of course I would probably end up as blind and greedy as the rest of them!!

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Mr Grumpy

Oct 29, 2011 at 11:08

You know what?

I am totally saturated with the whole EU thing but am not ignorant in any way of the issues, (unlike most of the electorate - probably - who don't understand any of it because it hasn't been properly explained, in plain English, by HMG).

I have simply reached the point where I don't give a rat's arse any more except for one thing.

What the hell is all this going to cost ME, --yes, selfish ME as an individual!!

I suspect all of us UK mugs are destined for a diabolical shafting.

Positive comments only please - and have a wonderful day.

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Gerald McDaid

Oct 29, 2011 at 15:32

Hello

I have read the comments above and I have to say that I have great concerns that the UK may be stitched up by the French and Germans and that the UK Government may be sidelined whenever the real discussions about how all of this will be paid for is resolved behind closed doors!!

Like Mr Grumpy I suspect that we will drawn into paying large amounts of UK tax payer money to resolve the problem, without the benefits which we should get in return for doing this!

If you believe that this problem will not affect us then you must ask the question why did David Cameron insist on being there, as we are not in the Euro, and by all accounts, he did not get the guarantees that we will not have to pay more! In fact from what I have read he has been sidelined!

If anyone knows that he did get these guarantees, then please let me know!

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Malcolm Gliksten

Oct 29, 2011 at 20:08

This bailout can't be allowed to fail because , as Merkel said (in so many words) the consequences would be too awful to contemplate.

So all those moaners and jeremiahs (majority here) should beware of giving voice (or words) to their doubts and fears- which is just the very worst thing you can do at a time like this....

The crisis will be solved because it has to be. Its just that the present status quo will probably be overthrown in the process and great changes will have to take place.

(To wit- non- entrepreneuruial CEOS and bankers who think they are entitled to annual salaries of mega-millions are going to be in for a shock.)

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Captain Grouch

Oct 31, 2011 at 09:04

The irony is that for decades we have been told that setting the markets free will benefit everyone and the economy will grow. It has worked so well that we are now relying on a "communist" country which has acted contrary to many free market precepts to bail us all out. Who are the idiots?

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