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A sharp hike in interest rates next year is now more likely
The tug of war over interest rates has stepped up a pace after Friday's GDP data. But with the Bank of England unlikely to lift rates now, the risk of sharper moves later has increased.
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More FTSE charts & pricesby Deborah Hyde on Jul 24, 2010 at 00:01
Expectation-beating GDP data surprised everyone on Friday and sparked much debate about whether interest rates are likely to go up in the months ahead.
There is no doubt that the 1.1% growth in output in the three months to June exceeded everyone's expectations and it is likely the news will silence calls to pump more money into the economy.
But it is unlikely to lead to a swift move to lift the Bank's interest rate from the current lows of 0.5%
Read what the decision-makers have been saying recently and it is clear that one quarter of strong growth, even if it is far, far above expectations, will not be enough to cause the majority of the committee to rethink their assumptions about the prospects for growth or inflation.
The men on the committee have faced down criticism about their decisions for many, many months and have merrily changed their interpretation of the 2% inflation target because they believe they have got it right regardless of what their critics say.
The fact that inflation has been above target for 41 of the past 50 months and is currently around 2% higher than where the committee thought it would be at this point has left members unfazed.
They - like others - are still holding to their belief that the pace of growth will slow in the months ahead.
The chief economist for the Bank of England, Spencer Dale, said just this week that there are some signs that growth may be slowing again. He is worried about the amount of cash available to businesses and also nervous that weak sterling has not led to more exports.
He is also nervous about how the simultaneous cutbacks across a number of the world's leading economies will affect growth.
In an interview with the Independent, he said the economy will not be back to normal for an awfully long time.
All that from the man thought to be the most likely to join Andrew Sentance and vote for an increase in rates.
Others are even less likely to make such an important about-face so soon.
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10 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Eugen
Jul 24, 2010 at 09:14
Ohhh ..., they have looked in their crystal ball again. This time they have seen that interest rates need to raise.
report thisChris
Jul 24, 2010 at 09:30
The theft from savers to fund the feckless is not yet complete. The PM promised to look after the over indebted and foolish.
report thisDislexic Landlord
Jul 24, 2010 at 11:15
mmmmmmm dis anyone ever see .5% to be the BOE base rate 3 years ago
why should we belive anything that is said now
but just think if intrest rates treble we will be on 1.5% its frighting isent it
no one knows what is in store so stop bluffing if you think you do
report thisshaon mukherjee
Jul 24, 2010 at 12:00
inflation, inflation or hyperinflation in america. Anyone for getting back on the gold standard?
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 24, 2010 at 13:19
These days I'm debt free and I hope I can keep it that way.
All throughout my early life of having to borrow, rates were typically 9% - 12%.
When taking out a new mortgage in the 1980s I budgeted for just being able to manage 16% so sweated a bit when they briefly hit 15%. Happy days.
(when I recounted this to a young work colleague he dismissively said, "Oh, that could never happen again.")
Through hard work and prudence I've now got a bit of a nest egg which is set to diminish through ludicrously low interest rates and devaluation through printing of money and other government deception.
Of course, according to some members of the young green eyed, want everything you've got but now generation, I've apparently enjoyed the best of times at their future cost.
I wonder how many of them, leveraged to the hilt, have even considered how they'd deal with a rate rise to say, a mere 4 or 5% let alone a double figures job?
report thisA jock strap
Jul 24, 2010 at 19:02
Money on deposit does not help anyone enough to justify any increase in interest rates as debtors are still struggling and failing and sinking and ordinary families are finding it hard to keep heads above water.
Rent arrears are increasing and vigilence is needed more than ever. What chaos the unrealistic housing benefit limits from baldy IDS will cause with single BOTS crting on telly as landlords evict them because they cannot top up the HB.
The world economy is very fragile. The PIGS will see worse to come whilst the BRICs are only growing because of low low wage costs.
USA has yet to recover as morte banks, albeit small went under last week making 90 so far this year I believe. Some way to go yet then USA who bare too busy raping BP and British Pensioners divis to hide the bad news of sovereign debt that still lurks unresolved along with other Wall Street unexploded alchemy bombs of fancy financial products.....
Raise interest rates too soon and cause the Great Depression BofE. First public sector pay and pensions must be reformed (REDUCED) to the affordable along with police bfiddled overtime - yet another state taxpayer funded scandal....
report thisHesi
Jul 24, 2010 at 20:58
I'm afraid with rates at record lows for months now and not likely to change anytime soon you will not find much sympathy for "those struggling with debt repayment and worried about how interest rate rises will affect mortgage repayments" From a savers perspective the indebted have already had all the help they didn't deserve and more. With the FSA recently reporting that almost 50% of mortgages granted between 2007 and Q1 2010 were granted without proof of income and mortgage brokers having the audacity to squeal that clamping down on this will slow down the property market I have litte faith that anything approaching sanity will be applied to the challenge of re aligning a wholly dysfunctional property market. In Britain it seems the motto of the last decade has been "the indulgent and profligate shall inherit the earth" with a little bit of help from their friends, the politicians, who presided over a comatose regulatory structure.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 25, 2010 at 10:19
Jock Strap, You could ease your blood pressure by not believing everything you read in the papers.
E.g. on the police overtime issue, my colleagues and I are staggered as to where this so called £3000 per officer comes from. For years Forces have been extremely restrictive with paid overtime having to be authorised and it is like getting blood out of a stone.
And its hardly a fiddle. Don't forget, it isn't an ordinary job. If you are in the middle of dealing with a prisoner, a protracted procedure at the best of times, there is seldom anyone else to take over if your shift end approaches, and you can't just clear off home. (and believe me, at the end of a 12hr shift, that's what most blokes would love to do)
You'd often have to settle for time off in lieu instead but then it ain't easy to actually take that time off.
Looking at pay slips, most of us were lucky to have managed a few hundred quid over a whole year.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 25, 2010 at 10:35
A jock strap: In case it escaped your notice, my Nurse pay is frozen for at least a couple of years so with inflation that is actually the reduction you seek.
Meanwhile I see BT winning a 9% increase over 3 years.
Unlike them I can't and won't strike so I have to lump it.
Be careful who you offend as not all public sector are the shiny trousered brigade. If you were ever to be admitted to mine or any other ITU, you would be one very ill person requiring dedicated & skilled care.
report thisnormski
Jul 25, 2010 at 11:40
It must be pointed out that the 6.6% growth in construction for the second quarter is after the worst winter for builders since 1963When that too was a very bad winter. The backlog of work together with weather damage will have distorted thes figures without doubt.
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