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Charlie Parker: Why I'm buying into the US for my Sipp
Citywire's investment editor Charlie Parker explains why he is ignoring fears of a 'double dip' recession and is adding to his US holdings.
Markets
I try not to fiddle with my Sipp too much. When you are, as I am, investing for the next forty years it is a fatal error.
Broadly, as I have written, I have my Sipp invested in those assets which over the next forty years will be the long-term winners; Russian, Chinese and Asian shares as well as commodities.
However, I am about to venture into my Hargreaves Lansdown Vantage account in order to buy some US shares. I will be funding it by selling a small - and failed - position in Artemis Global Growth as well as by trimming my position in the CF Eclectica Agriculture fund.
So why am I doing it? Well primarily because for investors in Britain it is very rare for there to be an occasion where both the US dollar looks likely to appreciate against the pound and also US companies look like they will do better than countries elsewhere in the developed world. When those two things come together it is a good idea to seize the opportunity.
Why I believe the dollar can rise further
Over recent weeks the dollar has benefited from money leaving the euro because of the crisis they're experiencing but also from a perception that while the US has its own problems they are not as profound as those to be found in the UK and Europe. In that sense the dollar is doing well, as fund manager Stewart Cowley pointed out last week, 'not because of what it IS but because of what it ISN'T'.
We can all debate how long this process will go on for. Some will say that the US simply cannot afford a strong currency. However, they may not have much say in the matter because if money keeps flowing in the dollar will keep strengthening - at least for a while.
Yet the dollar is a secondary issue, it is the companies that I really want to own right now.
Why I believe it is time to buy US companies
It has been a tough few weeks for US shares. Last month Americans woke up and suddenly realised Europe was in crisis. Having previously assumed that us European were an irrelevance they then begun to capitulate to all the worst fears that the European bond markets could plague them with. It led to dramatic falls on Wall Street.
This may go on a few weeks more but as I wrote recently the selling on this fear is being done by the sorts of investors who traditionally have proven themselves poor predictors of markets; namely private investors and other unreliable technical indicators. In contrast institutional investors and those with a better record of beating the market are becoming less nervous about markets. In the US they talk about these too different investors as the 'dumb money' and the 'smart money' investors. The dumb money is selling, the smart money is just starting to buy.
The reason I believe the smart money is starting to buy US shares is that fundamentally the prospects for US companies are getting better and better. The Americans cut their costs much more quickly than us and they have seen much sharper progress from US companies in the recovery - helped by the fact that the US consumer is well and truly back at the shops.
This is demonstrated by rising profit margins and earnings that have consistently surprised on the upside in recent months. I believe that at some point in the coming weeks and months US investors will start to focus on that again and this correction will be seen as just that - part of a longer bull market. Of course I could be wrong but even if I am then all I have done is remove some of my exposure to risky emerging markets and instead put it in shares that at least in currency terms carry less risk.
So how am I going to execute my view?
Considering this decision reflects a tactical view - not one I am necessarily going to leave in place for years to come - many people would say its wise to buy a cheap exchange traded fund to track the index rather than pay intial charges and management costs.
However, I will be using active managers because using the Hargreaves Lansdown platform buying and selling ETFs is quite expensive. The added cost there probably takes away from the saving I would get by paying for active management and I also believe that contrary to what most people think there are some star US equity managers out there.
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20 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Anonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jun 10, 2010 at 09:50
I think we should boycott America after Obama's stance on BP & the dividend.
If the Americans were not so greedy for cheap oil the deep drilling would not have happened - they are a gready bunch those Americans .
Support BP ....
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:07
Obama's 'handling' of BP has been pathetic and reminded me of Gordon Brown's handling of anything more complicated than ordering a cup of tea.
Opportunistic and popularist - signs of desperation this early do not bode well.
BP will still there long after Obama isn't.
report thisjames booker
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:31
Obama attitude is hard to swallow unless he is subsequently supported by evidence of real negligence/carelessness
report thisAnonymous 3 needed this 'off the record'
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:38
BP got into all this trouble when it
bought AMOCO. It should immediately
split off all the US interests and rename
the vehicle AMOCO. (American Oil Coy)
Then lets here the Muslim president say
that he has his boot on AMOCO's neck.
All this claim nonsense il Louisiana is brought
about by the US's claim culture. If it was not for
BP Louisiana would be on its knees. BP is the
biggest employer in the state. The fishing
industry was dying before this incident
cant compete with imported seafood from the
far east.
If Cam/Cleg had any balls they would say to
US restrain your mouths or troops come out
of Afghanistan next week and we will refuse to
cooperate on any extradition cases.
report thisphil da costa
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:39
Americans (not all but in general) have reacted immaturely to the BP issue. Too much emotion, too much hyperbole, too little thought. The US demanded cheap and locally sourced oil. The authorities allowed corners to be cut in the quest for oil that didn't rely on imports. They have now put limits on production in the Gulf - they will either have to back down or pay the price for more expensive oil. They are vindictively pursuing an essentially good company - one that produces wealth and creates jobs. This is in the Anglo / American tradition. Those that are trying to destroy them, public servants, are consumers of wealth. Barack Obama (B.O.) has demonstrated that he is not a leader but a follower. He is not strong but reactionary. What more can you expect from a nation that hounded the Beatles, at their height, out of the U.S. for John Lennon's (in his early 20s) comment that the Beatles were more famous than Jesus.
report thisPeter Duffy
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:41
Hi Charlie,
HL doesn't allow you to reclaim US dividend tax via the IRS W8 BEN form. This is exactly why I moved from HL to Sippdealextra/ Selftrade recently.
Now, if you and I buy exactly the same investments via our respective SIPPs, you will be paying more tax.
I asked HL to sort this and altho they recognized the issue, they were not willing to implement the W8 BEN process which would have reduced the tax exposure.
What is the W-8BEN? By completing this form, UK investors can claim exemption from paying US tax on dividends and interest from shares traded in the US, as such income will already fall under UK income tax rules.
You'll see more here:
http://www.selftrade.co.uk/forms/w8ben.php
I'm not affiliated with Selftrade - i just don't like paying unnecessary tax.
Hope this helps
report thisAnonymous 4 needed this 'off the record'
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:41
Is this a genuine article or advertisement for certain funds and SIPP providers.
If a SIPP provider who is expensive to buy etf is expensive why can't you change it?
Cetainly you are not trying to suggest that one should not build their portfolio without ETF ?
report thisPeter Duffy
Jun 10, 2010 at 10:49
Hi anon 4, I'm a regular punter and the above is not an advert - I had a long-running discussion with HL re taxes on dividends within a SIPP. In short, the HL doesn't reclaim all the tax that they could reclaim on US-based investments - so I moved from HL (after staying with them for 4 years)
Sadly, most people are unaware of this important issue :)
report thisdan cahill
Jun 10, 2010 at 11:25
Be careful. The USA is the biggest debtor nation by far. Some day this will have to be resolved.
report thisMike
Jun 10, 2010 at 12:05
Do I detect more than just a touch of racism Anonymous 3? Muslim president?
You need your head examined. Not surprised you made the comment anonymous.
report thisAnonymous 5 needed this 'off the record'
Jun 10, 2010 at 13:12
We are indebted to Charlie for making us aware of Ciywire's research. On the face of it his deliberations appear sound, however the circumstances that will exist when he reaches retirement age are impossible to predict, therefore when planning such long term investments my strategy would be to buy index tracker funds, which I could contribute to on a monthly basis. It would be cheaper to set up, dividends should cover management costs, and would provide the basis for making forecasts, assuming positive developments occur.
In the short term, to say that I'm bearish would be an understatement. Polar bearish would be nearer the mark. The 2007 credit crunch was more than a milestone of history, it is developing into a watershed point. The most significant indicators are the US Govt's contentions with Wall street in general and Goldman Sachs in particular. Angela Merkel, Nicholas Sarcosy, and Vince Cable are all determined to ring fence the casino operations of powerful banks, and it looks like their are no suckers left willing to take dodgy CDO,s and Govt Bonds. The lack of liquidy is set to continue, which means p/e ratios will remain low, the values of tangible and intangible assets will have to be revised lower, and companies will strive to reduce their debts in preference to implementing expansion plans.
Batten down the hatches, we are heading for the perfect storm.
report thisWilliam Phillips
Jun 10, 2010 at 14:15
Can we stick to Charlie's strategic arguments, pro and con? There are plenty of threads to comment on BP and Obama.
Charlie seems to pin hopes on the dollar as a safe haven from the euro (and by infection, sterling) and on the US economy continuing to come a lot faster out of the traps than the Eurozone- while China may be riding for a fall.
There is a contrary view, that American double-dip is a distinct risk, which has been interestingly put forward by the Consumer Metrics Institute. See its new lead-indicator index of consumer discretionary spending and GDP growth or contraction, graphed here:
http://www.consumerindexes.com/
It implies, on the established 4-5 month lag, that the USA will indeed relapse as the second half of 2010 wears on. This contradicts widespread predictions of 3-5% growth year on year, but should be attended to.
John Mauldin, the investment manager who writes 'Outside the Box', points out that such a recession has hitherto been associated with a fall of up to 40% on Wall Street. After so much Obarminess and manipulation through stimulus in the Dow rally of the last 12 months or more, soon to be abruptly replaced by tax hikes and job cuts, the CMI index is a big red warning signal.
report thisMichael Hellman
Jun 10, 2010 at 14:23
A good move, the USA is still going to be the 2nd largest country by GDP in about 2050, and the USA is picking up again, impossible really to time markets.
Eclecticas agriculture fund has been a bit of a poor performer as have other agri. funds. Does anyone out there have a good agriculture angle?
Peter Duffy that was useful info on the US divi tax. thx
report thisISA23
Jun 10, 2010 at 17:50
Good old Charlie is buying a fund, Neptune US Opp. Claiming tax on US divi is irrelevant for him.
report thisCharlie Parker
Jun 10, 2010 at 17:54
Hargreaves Lansdown and tax
Thank you to Peter and the other bloggers for pointing out this issue with Hargreaves Lansdown and tax. I was not aware of it and I will personally take it up with Peter Hargreaves and get our readers an answer on what they are going to do about it. Hargreaves has its faults and this is certainly not an advertisment (we have written our fair share of negative things in the past) but one thing they are good at there is giving straight answers. Watch this space.
report thisBroomtree
Jun 11, 2010 at 01:00
Okay Charlie I seem to be taking the route you do not recommend - I am with HL and bought my first ETF this week [the new HSBC S&P 500] I confess I find their service first class but was unaware of this tax issue, I found the costs reasonable but as I say I'm a 'newbie' on ETF's. As for BP I filled my boots with them today, don't really mind if the divi is 'delayed' for a quarter or two as the capital appreciation in the shares should be reward in itself - As for Obama I have always been pro American but that is wearing very thin - The land of the free with a President dictating dividend payments by a multi-national? And he criticises China? He may be too young to remember Union Carbide but he might like to dig out the senior managers still hiding behind the US flag and send them to India!
report thisGareth Williams (Citywire)
Jun 11, 2010 at 08:52
Hargreaves Lansdown has responded to the question over why it is not able to claim back the tax paid on US dividends by holders of US equity funds investing through its Vantage platform.
The group has said that the tax, which strips 15% off the value of dividends paid out, is being looked at closely and that it hopes to have reached a conclusion by the end of this US tax year - which runs until January.
The group said that it is a complicated problem to solve because in order to not pay the tax it would have to offer a guarantee that nobody in its nominee account - which actually purchases the units - was a US taxpayer.
However, it said that it is looking for a way around the problem and it is also evaluating whether it is possible to re-claim the tax that has already been paid.
The firm said it does not know why other sipp providers are able to do this while it is not and speculated that they may 'assume' that none of its holders are US taxpayers. It is concerned about the liability associated with this. It would remain concerned it said about its own liability even if it asked investors whether they were liable in case they were lying.
report thisGareth Williams (Citywire)
Jun 11, 2010 at 08:52
Apologies that last post was Charlie Parker and not Gareth WIlliams talking.
report thisA Patel
Aug 03, 2010 at 16:10
Nice call on the US there Charles
report thissnoekie
Sep 10, 2010 at 21:17
A small part of my SIPP fund is in a 'mad money' investment, well not quite so mad. This a newish small mining company operating in SA, but is Australian, mining chrome ore. No debts, and has already paid a maiden divi.
Because of the downturn the price is low, but steel is an essential so when they have run out of stock, the manufacturers users will have to buy, and the price of chrome ore continues to rise from its lows. My outlay 2% of my fund, but if it really comes good the value is likely to be about 10% of the fund, maybe double that.
As for the US tax, if you complete the form, the co trustee must sign as it will benefit the fund, and they are obliged to act where the is benefit to the fund. If not, they must stump up the potential loss, a trustee must not act against the interests of the fund/beneficiary, and no exemption will save them.
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