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Chart of the Day: how much QE can Merv get away with?

'A lot' is the answer from economists, who say that inflation will continue falling in the UK.

by Chris Marshall on Feb 07, 2012 at 11:31

How much more money can the Bank of England churn out while keeping inflation under control? That’ll be the question Mervyn King’s nine-man monetary policy committee (MPC) will debate when they meet this week to ponder the fate of the UK economy.

Falling inflation, and expectations that it will carry on falling to take consumer prices inflation (CPI) below the 2% target, gives the MPC greater scope to flood the system with more money in the form of quantitative easing, the programme under which a cool £275 billion has so far been committed to buying assets – mostly gilts (UK government bonds) – from pension funds and the like. The general idea is that the money paid for gilts will then be used to buy riskier assets.

They’ll also ask, do the upbeat economic signals of recent weeks augur an escape from the physiologically damaging clutches of a double-dip recession? If that’s the case then maybe £50 billion will do the job rather than £75 billion.

The consensus among practitioners of the dismal science is for another £50 billion to be announced on Thursday. A few dropped their forecasts after last week’s PMI readings. Others remain certain that the Bank will say what-the-hey and plump for £75 billion, placing around a third of the total gilt market in the Bank of England vaults. As the Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists behind today’s chart say, inflation expectations would allow for this higher figure.

CPI inflation forecasts (%, year on year) under different QE scenarios

An alternative tactic would be a US Fed-style wait-and-see approach. The central bank holds out the tantalising prospect of more QE – thus placating jittery markets – but resists for as long as possible. After all, once you’ve unleashed QE3, what are you left with to support frightened investors?

Befuddled by QE? Here's the Bank of England's explanation. Want to get back to basics on inflation? Check out this slightly-too-long ECB video about the monster.

15 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Truffle Hunter

Feb 07, 2012 at 13:44

Ah, of course, the economists all clearly saw the financial crisis coming and gave us all good warning! Good reason to believe them this time? I doubt it.

The only way out of this problem is to try and increase NOMINAL GDP by printing money to create a little inflation to prevent it becoming obvious that REAL GDP is falling. Keeping interest rates below the engineered rate of inflation then helps depreciate the real value of the debts away. All part of the smoke and mirrors game that our trusted economists and their government use to confuse the public.

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Alan Tonks

Feb 07, 2012 at 14:26

“How much more money can the Bank of England churn out while keeping inflation under control?”

Firstly money it isn’t, churn out is about right, like butter it will just melt away just like the pound. As for inflation being under control that is pure fantasyland.

All thanks to Sir Merv and his pathetic cronies, who really do live in a fantasy world.

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Truffle Hunter

Feb 07, 2012 at 14:47

Churn it out they will! The USA, Japan, and Europe are all running the electronic presses so the B of E will have lots of cover with no fear of a Sterling Crisis. Government fiat is going to be totally discredited by the time they have all finished printing. Gold and Silver are the only honest monies.

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mary maddock

Feb 07, 2012 at 14:49

Fantasy world is absolutely correct. The trouble is that the rest of us who do not "earn" in excess of £300,000 per year will have to deal with the reality of the mess they are making.

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Alan Tonks

Feb 07, 2012 at 16:02

I wouldn’t worry about it Mary, just get a few wheelbarrows and you should soon be selling them for billions.

This unfortunately will only get you an extra loaf of bread, providing you are faster enough with your wheelbarrow.

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Jeff of Sidcup

Feb 07, 2012 at 18:02

When I ran a successful ad agency in the 70's, I used to by a new 911 Porsche every year. The first one was under £7k and the third one was around £8k.

And that, of course, was when there was no quantitive "easing. Now, they start at over £70k. Another ten years of this and they will probably cost a quarter of a million! Needless to say, I can't afford such a car today.

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Jonathan

Feb 07, 2012 at 18:10

Jeff,

Yes, the fact that everything cost 10 times the amount it did in the 70's is one of the surest bits of evidence that printing money causes inflation. If fact the government/central-bank/BOE printing money is the only cause of long term inflation.

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mary maddock

Feb 07, 2012 at 18:43

Decimalisation was another good wheeze..prices doubled over night. This is of course part of the master plan..we are just hamsters caught in a wheel running faster and faster trying to get...nowhere!

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mary maddock

Feb 07, 2012 at 18:50

Have any of you seen "The American Dream" a cartoon film on You Tube? It outlines the vast deception very well!

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Truffle Hunter

Feb 07, 2012 at 19:02

Debt slavery in the UK lives! After the property debt supercycle, more and more are stepping into the trap but this time it is students borrowing to get valueless degrees. The difference between the 70's and now is that there were some pretty good jobs that paid well enough to pay back the HP on fast car.

All governments like debt and inflation because they can tax it. They cant tax deflation and still balance their books. In the 19th Century there were periodic bouts of deflation but people gradually were becoming better off as they moved away from cultivating the land. Deflation in the price of goods was fantastic news - increased production at lower prices was possible as a result of genuine rising productivity. People generally benefited from deflation. Today it is an evil in politicians eyes only because governments are hooked on borrowing and spending like drunken sailors.

Since WW1 we have lurched from one bout of inflation to the next, all a result of the various politicians that have been elected.

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snoekie

Feb 07, 2012 at 21:30

Come the revolution, King, Osborne, Brown, Balls et al will lose their pensions and be guests of HM for more than a few years because of their frauds and counterfeiting.

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Jonathan

Feb 07, 2012 at 22:20

Actually, it's pretty normal practice for the BOE to print money. It's just they are having a bit of an extra splurge at the moment. They just don't like to let the general public (or the Chinese) know that this is their game. Sell your pounds!

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AL WILSON

Feb 13, 2012 at 17:51

Sure, sell your pounds...and buy what exactly ???

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Jonathan

Feb 13, 2012 at 18:12

I think the answer is obvious.

Buy the things that go up with inflation.

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Jeff of Sidcup

Feb 13, 2012 at 19:47

Rare postage stamps rose by up to 700% in the 70's, according to Stanley Gibbons.

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