Diary of a Dumb Investor: fail, Sarko, fail!

> I know it’s a bet

Ever heard of the Grand National? Maybe you should diversify into dogs, too ;)

LLOY has fallen 5.22% today, whereas BARC is 'only' down 1.82%. Does this imply some ‘reassessment’ of the inherent risk at Lloyds, or is there some other reason?

DI, if you are only holding it in hopes of Sarko losing the French election, I would sell your CAC 40 2X Short Fund Shares exchange traded fund now. Not because I think Sarko will win, but because all the polls are predicting he won't. So the news you hope for is already in the price, and if Sark DOES win, then you lose!

What I like best about DI's musings and writings is the visibly display of agonies and uncertainties that I'm sure are shared by many others.

Considering the market bearish I did something similar to DI and bought into a US $ ETF. Treasuries did indeed go up a bit and my ETF went down a bit. And now Shares and Treasuries are up and Gold is down, and I think the Spain stuff is a 'danger UXB' problem.

So if DI's seeing a profit I'd go for it.

This man was never meant to be an investor.

Rather, a trader without equal.

A few growing pains will not stop his eventual success.

In the meantime, the column gets more action.

DI,

subscribe to the following Golden Rule - Success is 10% inspiration, 90% last-minute changes when trading these instruments.

Take the profit daily/weekly as motivation while constantly readjusting your position to hedge risk.

I do believe that the analysis concerning the instrument in mind maybe pointing higher the case being the french presidential elections this month.

So watch this space as the market does not like uncertainty hence the reasoning behind the argument.

Don't waste time learning the "tricks of the trade - unlike the commentary above." Instead, learn the trade as that is where you will gain confidence.

It's good to hear that the comments directed at DI are now more uplifting, rather than the somewhat vicious putdowns he has received in the past. DI is human too, remember.

Now C'mon: Take profit on a daily/weekly basis? How are gunna cover your costs with only £1000 to stake?

My plan for what it's worth, is to take a view as to which way the market is going. When I consider the markets or invidual shares to be in an uptrend I take long positions, with stop loss triggers, where appropriate, as a means of insurance.

I don't subscribe to shorting as in my experience judging when and by how much a market will fall is more unpredictable than spotting a rising trend.

European markets look fragile, but If I was in DI's shoes I would be more concerned with the knock on effects concerning his other investments. (If Paris goes down it will drag London down with it)

Ever heard of "for the long term" ?

"has returned 7.7% since I bought it at the beginning of the month".....

Since your need for gratification is so short term have you thought about fruit machines or better still daily spread betting. You can get your fix every day or even every second ! - With £1000 you might as well get some thrills , you'll never make anything with the trading costs you incur - me I'll just settle for 5 - 10% growth over 25 years to fund my rather less frenetic needs

Everyone can make a small winning from time to time but can they do it consistently, in meaningful amounts? Which probably is a rhetorical question. Maybe investing is for, hopefully, protecting the value of your money and making steady gains whereas (glorified) gambling is for fun, if you like that sort of thing. Actually this post is not to unlike the one above – sorry if the logic is being laboured to some extent.

An article to chear you up - re BP. Think you just need to be patient.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/501871-bp-may-be-the-hottest-stock-for-2012-with-44-upside?source=email_investing_ideas&ifp=0

following on from Spotdog, dare I remind you of what I have been saying over many months, patience is a virtue. Afren, and I thank you for the tip, today at £1.505, and I bought in at 94p, then 87p, and then 75 p!

Now BP is heading to my 'buy' territory, adding yet more to my holding. My recommendation to you is sit tight on that, it will rise again, I think, and what is more is will pay dividends, at not a bad rate, over 4%, and they are 'fishing' in prospectively productive areas, like Afren.

Betting on, or for that matter against, politicians is pure gambling, not investing. It will not impress uncle. Change of name in order?

Please don't remind me about Afren!