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‘Endgame’ for eurozone approaching fast, warn analysts
‘September is likely to be a defining month for the euro area’s destiny,’ says BarCap economist, while Goldman’s Jim O’Neill warns it’s likely ‘something “big” has to happen with Greece pretty soon’.
Markets
Divisions at the European Central Bank (ECB), a torrid month for equities, fears over French banks and talk of an imminent Greek default – among other things – have led analysts to predict: the eurozone project is fast entering its ‘endgame’.
‘September is likely to be a defining month for the euro area’s destiny,’ wrote Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital.
Strategists at JP Morgan, for their part, have pointed to ‘a growing sense that the crisis is reaching a climax’, saying that the ‘endgame on EMU [European Monetary Union] is approaching fast.'
And Jim O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, warned: ‘Not only does it seem as though something “big” has to happen with Greece pretty soon, but something “big” needs to happen for European bank capital, the clarity and determination of ECB policy making and, most importantly, where Germany wants to lead EMU.’
Greek default ‘more or less unavoidable’
O'Neill’s comments came shortly before German Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to quash talk that a sovereign default by Greece was at hand, saying policymakers were using all the tools they had to prevent such an event.
But Barack Obama, US president, has reportedly voiced concerns over the ability of European leaders to tackle the crisis – and his treasury secretary, Timothy Geithner, will take the unprecedented step of attending a meeting of EU finance ministers on Friday.
Following the talks, Greece’s international lenders are set to write a fifth ‘progress report’ on the debt-ridden nation. Without positive comment, the payment of the next tranche of over €8 billion (£6.9 billion) would be impossible, noted Lutz Karpowitz, strategist at Commerzbank, in which case Greece would be unable to meet its obligations in October at the latest.
‘The question of whether or not Greece will default is pretty much solved for the financial markets, though,’ he added. ‘From the point of view of the markets, a short-term default of Greece is more or less unavoidable.’
Concern over the impact of such a move on French banks, amid speculation that Moody’s will downgrade the lenders on Thursday, has sent their share prices down sharply in recent days.
Elsewhere, Italy’s borrowing costs leapt on Tuesday, with the yield – or implied interest rate – on benchmark 10-year government bonds rising as high as 5.77%, approaching levels regarded as unsustainable. The jump came as the country was forced to pay higher prices to sell new five-year notes after demand dwindled, and following the departure of a senior ECB official amid divisions over the bank’s programme of purchasing eurozone government paper.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley cited the spread of sovereign debt concerns to Italy as ‘a significant escalation’ of crisis. ‘It gives credence to the concept that the periphery is infecting the core, as opposed to the core bailing out the periphery,’ they said.
What should policymakers do?
Despite the talk of an ‘endgame’ being reached, the resolution of the crisis still appears far off.
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26 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Joe King
Sep 13, 2011 at 17:11
We're all doomed!!
report thisan elder one
Sep 13, 2011 at 17:30
WW3 with Germany again in the driving seat?
report thisgwilym rhys-jones
Sep 13, 2011 at 17:47
I'm organizing a street party.
report thisParabolic
Sep 13, 2011 at 17:50
By foresight or luck, I'm glad Britain fought the Euro. What a silly concept...
report thisJohn Au
Sep 13, 2011 at 18:12
The sooner this anti-democractic behemoth collapses the better
report thisWilliam Feader
Sep 13, 2011 at 18:40
The end.....
report thisWilliam Bishop
Sep 13, 2011 at 18:43
Don't underestimate Germany's ability to do just enough to keep the euro intact, while still dragging its feet. This show could still run for longer than you think.
report thisWhite Stick follower
Sep 13, 2011 at 19:06
What's the betting that somehow Brussels will find a way to get UK to help the next and the next and the next bail out. The reality is that too many EU States have been spending money they haven't got and continually pouring more into the Brussels pot will mean that they will carry on just as before. Enough is enough. Norway & Switzerland to name but two stayed as associate members of the EU, as well as keeping out of the Euro. I don't know about the Norwegians, but I'll bet the Swiss aren't shelling out.
report thisDavid Evershed
Sep 13, 2011 at 19:13
If banks write off 50% of Greek debt then there is a chance Greece might meet its interest obligations and even raise some new loans.
Then somebody (Governments?) have to support the banks with new capital.
report thisRaz.
Sep 13, 2011 at 19:48
This is a job for the Loan Ranger !
report thisSquareblade
Sep 13, 2011 at 20:09
Don't underestimate the pride and potential loss of face at stake, on the part of the architects of this stupid project. Not to mention all those on the gravy train. They will continue to pour European taxpayers' money into a futile attempt to prop it up until the German public revolt.
report thisSmithy
Sep 13, 2011 at 20:48
I'm sure the Germans will figure something out and keep the Greeks from defaulting. The longer Greece hangs on, the longer the Euro stays weak, the better it suits Germany's exports. When Greece defaults, the Euro will strengthen and Germany (and the northern European countries in general) will start to take some pain. And the vultures will start circling the next likely victim - Portugal, Ireland ...
report thisAnthony O' Grady
Sep 13, 2011 at 21:58
If basil fawlty had his time again it might just be 'don't mention the euro'. An utterly stupid project from the beginning!
report thisjohn_r
Sep 13, 2011 at 22:12
I'm astonished that some people still believe this could work out well for anyone. But of course the orchestration of countless eu meetings and meaningless rhetoric has served the situation well - giving member states valuable time to bolster their national banks defences before ''goodbye Greece day''.
Just one more thing needed before pulling the plug - a scapegoat - it will be too difficult to pin this one on the bankers. Now who will the culprit be?
Anyway I believe the markets have already priced in this seemingly inevitability (perhaps with the exception of bank shares which have further to fall). The curtain is coming down anytime soon.
........ but of course it won't end there as in the next scene Italy takes over centre stage and becomes a bit more of a problem.
Join us again next month for part 2 - The re-emergence of the Lira.
report thissnoekie
Sep 13, 2011 at 22:47
Raz, you mean the Sloan Ranger, and her plastique!
report thisJohn Mike
Sep 13, 2011 at 23:13
john_r says Join us again next month for part 2 - The re-emergence of the Lira
All the Italians I know would echo that. They feel they were well and truly shafted pricewise and pine for the good old days when every Italian was a millionaire.
report thisLeander
Sep 14, 2011 at 00:09
Can't wait for Greece to default/ reinstate the Drachma. Affordable holidays again in Greece and the Brits will flock there! Hey presto, Greece on its way back to solvency. The Eurocrats are probably still in denial about their pet project and won't allow the gravy train to be dismantled without a hell of a fight. We all know the destination for said vehicle is the creation by stealth of a country called Europe- a new Soviet Union-without the consent of Europe's peoples and in the face of hostility by them.
Too many politicians this side of the channel are equally in denial and they have to sharpen up pretty soon or find someone else is doing the poeple's bidding. The EU/ Euro have been a disastrous failure and the time has come for the fatal blow to be to be delivered.
Better off out
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Sep 14, 2011 at 00:30
If you buying Greek Bonds with fantastic returns and can get the rest of the EEC to keep supporting Greece - just enough - you will continue to make a killing.... I wonder who could be doing this...... just make sure you get out if/before Greece defaults...... who would have the knowledge/power to do this.......... sad....... so sad for the ignorant tax payers.........
report thisIPD
Sep 14, 2011 at 02:24
The banks have been buying buckets of Greek debt for the last three years in the knowledge that it is a no-brainer. They get huge returns and know that the tax payer will bail them out. Superb stuff for the European bankers. It looks like it is coming to a grizzly end though. Who cares, they have had their largely uninterrupted bonus payments the last few years. They can sit tight and ride out the mess and surface again in two or three years to make hay again.
report thisMr Grumpy
Sep 14, 2011 at 09:11
Look - I'm just a simple guy who understands that if I don't have the money to buy something then I need to borrow it at a rate I can afford.
When I apply for such a loan I am "checked and balanced" by the potential lender who quite rightly needs to assure himself of my ability to pay.
OK so far?
Right - who the hell was doing the checks and balances on those halfwit southern EU states who have obviously been spending beyond their means?
Who supplied the dosh?!!!
As I've questioned before on this blog, who on earth wants to join a club with a bunch of losers like Greece et-al ? This was an accident waiting to happen and it's about time the Brussels gravy train was closed down for good.
How the hell Merkel is getting away with all this without a revolution in Germany is beyond me!!
report thisThe ssinnic
Sep 14, 2011 at 09:38
Mr Ssinnic sends Mr Grumpy his esteemed compliments and agrees with Mr Grumpy, but wonders if Mr Grumpy would like to see and end to the following:
(1) Membership of the EU for political purposes, only retaining trading links, and
(2) agreement to accept the decisions of the European Court of Justice, and,(3) agreement to accept free movement of immigration from any member state of the EU.
And also Mr Ssinnic wants an end to "Human Rights" enslavement of the majority by the few!
report thisGD-C
Sep 14, 2011 at 11:28
Although it is not in remit of the UK government, I suspect the vast majority of England's voting public dearly want to see the demise of the EU the euro and all the crooks of various nations who have been robbing their taxpayers with false expenses claims, et al. Then, at least within the geography of Europe we could have what was always wanted but denied us by devious and inept politicians(nothing has changed)an unfettered market place. For years the Greeks have received hundreds of millions of euros for non existent olive groves, millionaires paid little or no tax and wasted millions on spats with Turkey. Let the Greeks, Italians and Irish take the medicine due for living beyond their means since the EU was set up. Let the UK thank its lucky stars that the Conservatives are in power - the only party capable of clearing up the debt crisis inherited from Labour's Blair and Brown, the two architects of the banking failure and the spending of £15bn on two failed wars and £5bn on an aircraft carrier that wont see service(if ever) until 2025.
report thisJames Piercy
Sep 14, 2011 at 13:24
Like Leander, I'm looking forward to Greece reverting to a low-valued drachma so that we can once again enjoy lovely cheap holidays in that captivating country. It will hardly be able to cope with the demand from Britons and others and should soon trade its way back to solvency, provided its citizens can kick the habit of retiring at 50 on pensions worth 85% of final salary (or whatever). The Euro always seemed an unlikely 'one-size-fits-all' project and our staying out of it is the one policy for which we can thank Broon.
report thisNick A.
Sep 17, 2011 at 12:22
There was a time when the world feared the Greeks. Those times are here again!
report thisyorkshireman
Sep 17, 2011 at 20:32
make sure that you check that your foreign currencies are with a safe bank
report thissnoekie
Sep 17, 2011 at 20:57
The EU has grown too big, taking in a lot of losers just to enlarge the power of its tyranny.
Time to shrink it, and not let the Turks join in.
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