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Eurozone bailout: a good start, but more to do
European leaders finally agreed on a trio of measures to try to bring the eurozone crisis to an end last night.
Markets
European leaders finally agreed on a trio of measures to try to bring the eurozone crisis to an end last night.
Investors around the world gave a nod of assent, buying shares and pushing up markets. In the US the Dow gained 162 points, or 1.39%, to 11,869, while the S&P 500 Index rose 13 points, or 1.05%. European and Asian markets made similar gains, with the FTSE 100 up 1.82% or 101 points at 5,654.
The euro summit produced a 15-page document including a raft of measures, with the final details hammered out in the early hours of this morning, but the triple resolution forms the core of the deal.
Although the initial response has been positive, there is little doubt that much remains to be done.
1. Boost the banks
The plans for banks contained no big surprises. European banks will have to increase Tier 1 capital ratios to 9% until 30 June 2012, compared with the Basel III target of 7% for the same period. If they do not achieve the new ratios they could be ‘subject to constraints regarding the distribution of dividends and bonus payments’.
‘Looking at latest earning reports from banks and the July stress tests, this new target should be achievable for most banks,’ said Carsten Brzeski of ING.
The summit agreed that banks should first try to use private sources of capital.
‘If this is insufficient, national governments should step in and the EFSF should only be the lender of last resort for bank recapitalisation,' Brzeski said.
But Michael Symonds of Daiwa Capital Markets said the recapitalisations were largely irrelevant and could even be destabilising ‘if market participants don't consider that the broader plan has killed off concerns that the Greek tragedy is merely the precursor of a wider euro area sovereign debt restructuring’.
And Douglas McWilliams, chief executive of the London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research, warned the banking recapitalisation could mean handing banking system over to Asian and Middle Eastern investors. ‘In practice this can only come from restricting lending, which will exacerbate the growth slowdown, or from Asian and Middle East investors who will have a buyers’ market and will probably end up owning the bulk of the European banking system as a result.’
The 9% plan compares with a 10% buffer that Britain's banks must by 2019 hold under the Independent Commission on Banking's proposals. 'Let’s be clear – European bank recapitalisation remains an aspiration rather than a reality, and it is crystal clear that the Europeans have no intention of ever signing up to the sheer excess that the UK regulatory nutters foist upon our own banks,' said Ian Gordon of Evolution Securities.
2. Haircuts to help Greece
‘The Private Sector Involvement (PSI) has a vital role in establishing the sustainability of the Greek debt,’ according to the summit statement. It was agreed, after long tough negotiations, that private investors would take a 50% cut on the face value of their Greek bonds.
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10 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Robert Court
Oct 27, 2011 at 08:52
The lack of anything in substance from Berlusconi and no detail on how the EFSF is going to be financed apart from the news that it shall be leveraged four or five times which smacks of even more financial manipulation won't help market confidence.
We have still not found a real solution and it seems that this mess is going to carry on for many more months let alone years before either everything really unravels and we face some terrible consequences or confidence is again restored until the next financial emergency knocks us for six.
Major restructuring includung some severe social and economic changes for all of us shall have to happen sooner or later.
We cannot have both high youth unemployment and a growing army of voting unfunded pensioners without something in our present system snapping - that's the fundamental problem we all face.
report thisAlastair
Oct 27, 2011 at 08:53
This homebrew will leave a hangover ... best sipped politely.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 27, 2011 at 12:13
As usual the EU leaders have taken far too long to agree to only the minimum required to stave off this crisis. We have been here before.
- Core Tier 1 of 9% is laughable.
- Haircut of 50% is not enough especially as its the Greek Banks who are hit most and then have to be recapped with more sovereign debt.
- Debt to GDP of 120% is unsustainable for Italy so why is it seen as ok for Greece?
- The EFSF is still not big nough.
The markets have bounced today but mark my words the ftse will be back below 5000 pts before Xmas.
report thisAnonymous 2 needed this 'off the record'
Oct 27, 2011 at 13:39
Out of all of this, just three words really matter. They were used by Merkel yesterday to sell the deal to the German Parliament: "No more money".
report thisMike_B
Oct 27, 2011 at 13:52
The Greeks must think that Christmas has come early!!
A common Greek business expression and ethos is "Screw him before he screws you". And how they have too.
If there is no punishment for not repaying their loans, then there is no reason or incentive for the Greeks to reform their corrupt and inefficient Government.
Greek businessmen endeavor, and believe that they are morally entitled, to avoid paying their taxes because the Greek politicians just steal their money, as well as the EU loans. Look at all the new villas and yachts, and ask where the money came from.
The Greek Government can pass all manner of tax raising laws, but except for the poor government employees (a massive 30% of working population!!), the businessmen will just ignore/avoid/fiddle the tax demands; just look at the response to the property tax that the Greek Government is trying to raise through the electricity bills.
Greece can only get out of this mess by leaving the euro, and reforming their government. Assuming they still wish to stay in the EU, then they should be assisted by the EU in this essential task, with a view to eventual re-admission to the euro.
report thisBrian Clifford
Oct 27, 2011 at 14:00
So the banks need to be re-capitalised because they lent loads of money to Greece ( and others ) who cannot pay it all back.
Once they are re-capitalised they will lend even more money to Greece ( and others ) who still will not be able to pay it back.
And this is the Grand Solution ???
report thisWilliam Bishop
Oct 27, 2011 at 14:04
Well described as just about achieving the minimum to keep the ball in the air. The can has just about been kicked down the road one time more, but we are still a long way from a permanent solution. The positive market reaction is perhaps more a comment on the low level of expectations engendered by the past series of inadequate measures.
report thisRobert Court
Oct 27, 2011 at 14:09
Like I've said before even if ALL Greek sovereign debt is written off it does not solve the problem as Greek government expenditure far outweighs government revenues............... and we are going down the same path unless WE also have massive structural reform in which, I believe, instead of us all being entitled to state health services, education and pensions that only the poorest of us would still be entitled to and use.
For example, those who can afford it (including many socialist members of Parliament) have always prefered private education while paying lip service to banning what they themselves want (hypocritical b*st***s!) so we really need to dispose of these state services for those who nolonger need them and concentrate on bringing the poorer segments of society up to a higher standard of living or we'll be living in an island akin to a Greek state before we can say 'Wuz 'appened 'ere?'
report thisDarren H
Oct 27, 2011 at 16:46
@ Rober Court, how many people do you actually think can afford private healthcare and education in this country and still have the means to pay rent, buy food and bring up children? I suggest a very small proportion - the reason why people most cannot afford to pay for these most basic rights is because in relative terms most people are poor compared to to those who could afford to pay.
report thissnoekie
Oct 27, 2011 at 20:20
Mike b, "If there is no punishment for not repaying their loans, then there is no reason or incentive for the Greeks to reform their corrupt and inefficient Government.", they are partly guilty, but the greed from the street fed the inefficiency and sloth. It is the street dwellers who do want a 'haircut' and to continue to live the life of Reilly at the expense of others.
Merkozy just made it possible for the party to continue and the Italians (in the same part of the world) will now also want to jump on the boat, which Merkozy have so willingly pushed out, and with gusto.
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