House price reports: who needs 'em?

sentiments to be agreed with - its all a bit like the rat chasing his own tail. A house is only worth what the market will pay for it at the time you want to sell...it certainly isn't a manufacturing material commodity...how many boom and busts does the housing market in the Uk have to go through before we learn this one, and the guys that invent these statisticsgo elsewhere and try to do something more constructive for a living.

I will be very happy to see the ONS take it's deep breath and pinch its nose and jump. With all the other indices I always feel vested interests spoke louder than figures.and the Halifax index always seemed to be the last purveyor of downward news.

The only useful outcome of this navel gazing is a measure of how difficult it is for anyone who does not already own a property to fund a property purchase in the near future. The ratio of price to average earnings illustrates the problem.

Leaving aside the absurd prices of property in major cities and London the average 3 bed semi in most outlying areas could not be purchased in many UK locations for less than 6-8 times average earnings. This is the political number which has significance.

Unfortunately the UK as a whole has invested far too much money in domestic property rather than productive businesses. The result is a stalled economy as no ordinary householder can release equity for any other investment purpose - or to start up a small business. The banks cannot allow property prices to fall far as their lendings rely on these silly valuations.

Perhaps more importantly, the owners of property cannot countenance a significant fall in their investment value either because all their eggs are in this basket. This is the political and financial dilemma which cannot be tackled by any party or the banks. The only solution is to gradually release more building land and limit the property values which can be constructed to dilute these effects over time - and to cap immigration too!

Perhaps we will see the return of large scale council housing to ensure those earning only 50k a year can find somehwere to sleep!.

As a Chartered Surveyor who has worked in the residential property market for over 40 years I consider myself qualified to coment on this matter.

The value of a property is complex. Whilst it depends upon the basic law of supply and demand many other issues come into the equation. To start with no two properties are the same simply because they do not occupy the same position. Two semi detached houses may look the same from the road but one may be in much better condition than the other or have a large garden or conservatory etc,etc.

The demand for a property is derived from the willingness and ability of an individual to purchase. There is always a greater demand for a property in a prime location rather than an inferior location. The ability to pay is dependant upon the job market, the availablity to borrow and the ability to repay.

With all these variations there is really no way a number of selling prices can be crunched through a computer to arrive at an accurate conclusion. The only reliable method of reaching such conclusions is for the same property to be sold in the open market between a wiling buyer and a willing seller on a regular basis and this would indicated whether the market was rising or falling and by how much.

At present the information is being fed to us by various so called research, is far too vague to be of any value. The person who knows what is going on is the person on the ground involved in the buying and selling of property.

If an idividual wants to know which way the market is going, it is only necessary to attend a local property auction where deals are completed there and then between willing buyers and sellers.

This is a complete no-brainer. Houses are just commodities like any other commodity. The true value of a house is what somebody HAS BEEN prepared to pay for it - not what it is priced at in an estate agent's website or what a straw poll of estate agents "feel" it should be worth or (ye gods!!) anything to do with loans. The ONLY reliable indication is the Land Registry's hard data from completions. If we have to wait a while for reliable data that's just tough.

The price of a house is what somebody is prepared to pay for it. The Land Registry can be the only meaningful average measure but then it's 6 months out of date and can be easily effected by the volume of sales. Do we need to know anyway? It is always impossible to time the market and only really affects those with buy to let asperations. Most real moves are motivated by other factors and ,dare I say it , the people best in the know are your local estate agents!

I thought the "profession" VALUER. disappeared back in the sixties along with lamplighters. Richard's well-argued viewpoint is interesting - but it's STILL what someone will pay (as many have pointed out) "professional" opinion or not...

As a chartered surveyor [retired] I agree with much of Richards comment, in the end it always has been and always will be what the individual purchaser is willing to pay. The only reasonably reliable index for those who crave them is the Land Registry figures as they are based on sales figures achieved and not on asking price which is irrelevant to value.

The idea of finite house prices is an absurdity. In this area you can get as many prices for your house as you have estate agents. We have seen houses sold and then resold within two or three months with a £100,000 tacked onto the original price. How any logical form of statistics can be supplied in this market is a mystery.

Back in the 80's I had my house valued as I thought I would need to move for my job. It was an individual three bed detached non estate house in a seaside village. I had three estate agents and basically they didn't have a clue how to value it. I got three different valuations back £40K, £50K and £60K (I said it was a long time ago). One even admitted that unless they were selling estate houses it was pure guesswork. With a valuation spread like that who can rely on "professionals"?

If the Land Registry were able to record real-time completions ....

Only government needs access to house price data. The rest of us should not be interested in a house as anything other than a home. The governments job is to see the voters are well housed and fed.

Anybody buying a second home has too much money and it should be taxed to hell and back. Greedy buggers.

Most people purchase using a mortgage so hope to get back the interest when selling,this was why property prices kept rising , not now they have become investments to rent out . First time buyers now dont stand a chance to find a cheap house against developers, buy to rent needs slowing down. Rents are often greater than amounts paid to buy once mortgaged .good luck because I have lived in my house for 40 years and is now worth about half a million pounds

Even on Property shows, at the end of the programme you get valuations of houses that in some cases vary considderably.

IU agree that no one can really value a house acurately it is the olsd addage of supply and demand and dependant on how mush you the buyer is prepared to pay for it. All houses for sale should have a "Guide price of" not sale price!!! because valueing a house that ptice is only a guide.

Investment in houses is wrong and should be taxed to hell and back

There is a house down the road which has been for sale for £450K for about 5 years, they recently got a new estate agent in and the price has gone up to £520K. Can anyone explain the logic here?

Martin is misguided if he believes that changing the asking price to a guide price will achieve anything. The asking price is the price the seller hopes to achieve. It is usualy but not always set by the seller after discusion with the estate agent. What ever it is called it is only what the seller hopes to achieve, which is frequently a figure substantialy more than that actualy achieved, and on rare occcasions less than that actualy achieved. Hence my view that if any basis is used for an index it should be based on the land registry figures which are the sale priced actualy achieved. Any other figure is misleading. If there is a delay in Land Registry Figures this would have no real affect on house prices as the buyer offers what he believes the property is worth.

Before deciding which answer is correct it is best to decide what is the question.

The government need something to tell it when to start printing money!

House valuations seem to follow the bandwagon principal. Valuers (usually estate agents) will use recent sales as barometer of where to pitch valuations. It really is that simple. In a rising market this poses no threat as lenders are comforted that they can lend in the knowledge that the underlying asset value will act as satisfactory collatoral for the loan. In a falling market the value placed on a property and the price agreed at a point in time may well not stand up to scrutiny by the lenders and many agreed housing sales are falling through because of differences between sale values and lenders valuations.