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House prices rise, fall and flatline

House prices rose 1.2% in June, Halifax revealed today – a stark contrast to earlier reports from Hometrack and Nationwide showing prices to be down and flat last month respectively.

 
House prices rise, fall and flatline

House prices rose 1.2% in June, Halifax today revealed – a stark contrast to earlier reports from Hometrack and Nationwide showing prices to be down and flat last month respectively.

House prices are up

House prices rose 1.2% in June, according to a new report by Halifax.

On a quarterly basis however prices remained subdued, falling 0.5% in the three months up to June compared to the previous quarter. And though this is the smallest quarterly fall in prices since the second quarter of 2010, prices are still 3.5% lower compared to the same quarter last year.

Martin Ellis, housing economist for Halifax, said: ‘Low interest rates, an increase in the number of people in employment and some tightening in market conditions earlier in the year are likely to have been the main factors behind the recent improvement in price trends’.

Looking ahead Ellis said: ‘A slowly improving economy and sustained low interest rates should help to support broad stability in the market over the coming months.

‘The market is, however, likely to continue to face significant headwinds which are expected to constrain housing demand,' he added.

Steve McGuckin, UK managing director at global construction consultants, Turner & Townsend, said: 'The market's recovery is fragile and confidence is weak. And it's no surprise confidence is weak given the state of the economy, reduced disposable incomes with inflation so high and more public sector job cuts still to come'.

House prices are flat...and down

In contrast to Halifax's survey today, Nationwide last week reported that house prices had remained flat during June and are likely to continue moving sideways through the summer months.

Hometrack meanwhile reported a 0.1% fall in house prices during June, with average prices now 3.9% lower compared with this time last year.

In our video 'Why are there so many house price surveys' we explain how house prices can seemingly be up, down and flat all at the same time.

6 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Dislexic Landlord

Jul 06, 2011 at 13:45

The reason they cant agree is simple know one knows the Truth ???

I belive house prices have futher to fall and i have said it for the past three years

and im not paid £1000,s to give you that advice

report this

Chris Clark

Jul 06, 2011 at 14:14

The only one that is accurate is the Land Registry. You can't trust the mortgage companies figures.

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LANDLORD X

Jul 06, 2011 at 16:28

House prices are sure to fall eveywhere except prime central London

Everyone else should be looking at renting not buying...renting is far less risk

Who knows what the chaos in the eurozone will do to the UK...and the housing market...best to keep your cash safe and rent for a couple of years

Not rocket science

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Chartered Accountant

Jul 06, 2011 at 16:45

I have not seen the methodology published anywhere, but I have been led to believe that the numbers derive from nothing more than simple arithmetic averages. This means that if the numbers are dominated by disadvantaged areas wherever rather than say London and the South East, then the reports will show declines. If the converse applies, then the reports will show advances. The truth is that the property market cannot be reported with just a single number. There will be regional variances and price range variances. Having been active in recent months in both London and the South East, my personal, albeit anecdotal, experience is outside of the lowest price brackets, London is firm and trending upwards and the commuter belt South East is firm and trending slightly upwards at higher levels but still slightly soft in mid-range properties. The number of "Sold" notices springing up implies that the market is on the move.

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Anthony English

Jul 06, 2011 at 17:16

There is only one sure indicator of future house prices- its a statistical factor called reversion to mean. In short average house prices will always be an average multiple of average wages- why because that reflects the level that the average person can afford to pay.

Average house prices are currently significantly above their long term average relationship to wages- consequently they will fall. There might be short term moves up but until wages start trending up house prices are going nowhere but down. Prices never move smoothly up or down in a straight line - they trend up or down on a graph that looks like a saw. Wikipaedia Gann charts and you will see that what looks like up is just the upside edge of a saw tooth in a down trend .

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kenneth douglas

Jul 07, 2011 at 10:18

Any gains will only be in the London, home counties area. The rest of the UK is flat or falling. The bull s*** that the financial press put out is just to fill space.

In Llanelli, west Wales 2 bed terr, £ 45/50k, in Swansea, seaside area, 2 bed terr £75/85k, 3 bed £107 / 114.

It is the same with rents, the main active area is London / home counties and a few of the larger cities. In Wales, both sales and renting are down. In Llanelli/ west Wales many l/lords have empty properties on their hands and rents are falling. I have not increased my rents for three years, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I will not have DSS tenants, they are not worth the trouble, fellow l/lords tell me the government freeze on DSS rent is sending many back to mom, depleting the market even further.

I think the wind is going to blow even colder in the shires over the next 2 years.

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