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Inflation busting: Tesco Bank launches RPI-linked bond
Index-linked bonds are proving increasingly popular as persistently high inflation creates a major problem for savers, says Lorna Bourke.
Markets
Tesco Bank's RPI-linked bond offers protection against inflation, with both capital and the 1% interest rate linked to changes in the RPI.
Savers hit by high inflation
Inflation is a major headache for savers. There are very few options out there that offer an after-tax return that maintains the value of the original investment without considerable risk. Index-linked bonds that offer inflation-proofing have proved popular, and depending on what inflation does over the next few years they could be a good bet.
Tesco Bank has just launched another inflation-proof bond, aimed at retail investors, with both capital and the 1% interest rate (coupon) linked to changes in the retail prices index (RPI). Last month RPI stood at 5.4%, some 0.2% higher than the government’s preferred measure of inflation, the consumer price index (CPI).
The Tesco bond has an eight-year term, which makes it eligible for ISA investments and means it would be a good bet for Sipps too. The maturity date is 16 December, and the minimum investment is £2,000. There is a relatively time span in which to apply, as applications close at 10am on 9 December, and the bonds will be traded on the stock exchange on 16 December.
Understanding bonds
This is not like a cash deposit in a bank or building society. The price of your bond in the market will go up and down between now and maturity reflecting investors’ view of inflation. To be certain of getting your money back you will have to hold the bond for the full eight years to maturity. If you want to cash in earlier you can sell the bond on the stock market through your bank or stockbroker, but you may get more or less than your original investment, depending on what inflation has done in the meantime. If you sell there will be dealing charges too.
Clearly, if inflation falls next year when the 2.5% increase in VAT drops out of the one-year RPI figures, you may not be able to sell for the full amount invested. But as George Osborne pointed out in his Autumn Statement, inflation has been imported through higher fuel, food and commodity prices, and this may not go away.
Phil Wong, investment manager at Redmayne-Bentley, one of the brokers handling the new issue, said: ‘The new Tesco Bank RPI bond issue is an excellent opportunity for investors who have ongoing concerns about the effects of inflation. This is an ideal time to issue the bond as there are clear signs of demand from retail investors for inflation-linked products, which was clearly demonstrated by the success of the National Grid index-linked bond in September, which raised in excess of £250 million in capital.’ The National Grid issue is currently trading in the market at £101.35 to £101.65.
Annual interest rate
The annual rate of interest of 1% is adjusted in line with changes in the RPI to provide a ‘real’ rate of return. The uprating is calculated as the level of RPI eight months prior to each coupon payment, with interest payable in two half-yearly instalments: 16 June and 16 December.
For example, if the change in RPI in October 2011 was an increase of 1.5% from the base figure, the interest rate on the bond’s first payment date of June 2012 will be based on the 1.5% RPI increase. But as there are two payments each year, the sum will be divided by two. Therefore, for a £2,000 investment, the payment would be £10.15.
But bear in mind that if the rate of inflation is negative then the effective rate of interest will decrease.
Redemption value
The good news is that when the bond matures eight years down the line, the payout will never be less than face value or ‘par’. So if you invested £2,000 and the RPI falls over the coming eight years – which is highly unlikely – you would still get back your £2,000 on redemption in 2019.
If the RPI goes up, the value of your investment will be uprated in line with the increase in the RPI between 2011 and 2019. So if the RPI rises by, say, 30% over the next eight years, your £2,000 investment would be paid out at £2,600.
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15 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Martin
Nov 30, 2011 at 18:24
What about deposit protection? Although this bond is issued by a UK bank, I don't believe investors will enjoy deposit protection.
report thisJames Keble
Nov 30, 2011 at 18:28
Are you saying that the capital value will go down if RPI drops below 5.4% ? Or if the RPI has risen and then fallen back to 5.4 the capital will go back to £2000?
If so this is a most unattractive issue. As I read it your statement "if the RPI rises by say 30% ----- your £2000 investment would be paid out at £2600 means an RPI of 35.4%, or is it 1.30 x 5.4 =7.2 %. It is confusing, yet you suggest that the capital value would go down except for the guaranteed refund.
report thistough enough
Nov 30, 2011 at 18:52
Lorna
Spot on
report thisRedundant (Old Timer?)
Nov 30, 2011 at 19:02
As I understand it - you get RPI plus 1% as a coupon paid every six months. At maturity you get your capital back plus any interest unpaid (i.e. from last coupon date to maturity payment date).
This is not a bank deposit and there is no protection - if Tesco Bank (a separate (subsidiary) company to Tesco plc goes bust, you could lose all of your capital.
report thisPensionsManager
Nov 30, 2011 at 19:39
Coupon is 1% so 1% return which increases by 5.4% if inflation remains as is (unlikely) = 1% x 1.054 etc
Capital returned in 8 years uprated by RPI. Min £2,000 returned.
If you sell in market you could lose cash due to fickle markets, inflation expectations, etc.
report thisSusan King
Nov 30, 2011 at 20:13
8 years is far too long to tie up capital for such a poor return.
report thisFranco
Dec 01, 2011 at 02:11
How does
report thisRobert Court
Dec 01, 2011 at 07:58
Tesco is undoubtably a good company with a Baa1/BBB+ rating re. Tesco bank.
As an investor I need to beat inflation and yesterday added to a holding of a BBB- rated bond paying a coupon of 9.25%. I paid 64.75 which means I get interest of 9.25 divided by 0.6475 = 14.2857142857% which is slightly over current official inflation rates.
The bond is a 'perpetual' (with a pretend maturity date of 2049 but with an option for the company to buy back at 100 in 2015) so carries a slightly lower rating than if the maturity date was fixed. Perpetuals are considered more risky but with a 9.25% coupon I believe the price shall rise until inflation becomes greater than say 8% to 10% and then one might be able to get a better return elsewhere.
I realise that with a return of over 14.28% interest per annum that the risk is slightly more than Tesco bank but I cannot be content with a return that only keeps up with inflation; if and when the price recovers to nearer par (100) I can either keep the bond with a lower yield on its market value (back down to 9.25% if it is worth 100 to sell) or sell at a handsome profit.
Should the bond price continue to drop I can either panic or buy more at an even higher yield; it's all very, very good fun [if a little stressful].
In an article today Smart Investor says that when the herd are panicking you have the opportunity to make good returns out of companies you consider to be a good long-term risk. I believe he was talking about shares. The same thing applies in the corporate bond market.
report thisbruce wedderburn
Dec 01, 2011 at 10:59
Guys, be very careful with these products - I read the small print in the NG issue and basically this is not going to see RPI added on each year as an absolute - it is always relative to where it stood at the previous measurement point... so,
If it starts at 5.2% at the outset and the next year it is at say, 4.5%, then there is a relative decrease in the rate of inflation and your returns go down by a commensurate leval in that subsequent year.... so, even if we still have inflation in say 5 years time of 2%, but in each of the measured years it is decreasing annually, then I know that the NG issue, for example, will have seen you actually lose money.
With the Tesco issue, I believe it will be similar in construct, so, you could actually see yourself in 8 years time with your ( not inflation uplifted ) original investment and the rate of interest you may have received could actually start at the headline1% pa, but it could easily halve to say 0.5% over the full term, or even end up close to zero.
So, these are clever capital raising instruments to capture our fear factor as private savers and to get us into products that sound good - just do go and read the small print and talk these finer details through with your IFA's...
report thisbruce wedderburn
Dec 01, 2011 at 11:03
Hi Robert
you didnt mention the specific Bond - if you are prepared to share which one that would be most helpful, but if not, I understand....
report thisRobert Court
Dec 01, 2011 at 14:09
bruce wedderburn
Sharing probably isn't particularly helpful as I live in the 'despicable' eurozone!
I have a small income in sterling but i mainly spend in euro and therfore like to avoid currency fluctuations by holding investments in the currency applicable - and in this case it's a bond denominated in euro.
The bond in question is the 9.25% BPCE 2015-49; a double risk whammy if you believe the euro is about to become as dead as the dodo plus that French banks are at huge risk due to their exposure to Italian and Greek debt; however, i take some comfort in the fact that BPCE paid back in April this year 100% of what they were bailed out by the French government; something that some of our banks in the UK have not been able to do.
There are, however, plenty of corporate bonds denominated in sterling that can give you a good return plus a HUGE market in USD bonds if you are inclined to take some risk with exchange rates.
As I originally said the bond I bought would certainly be perceived to be a greater risk than that offered by Tesco bank - I am prepared to take the risk as part of a diversified portfolio where I do not always expect to be a winner but expect to be a winner 80% of the time where the losses will be minimal compared with the considerable gains both in income and capital gains.
report thisa h
Dec 03, 2011 at 10:14
The reporting of RPI needs to be improved to help people to understand what is happening with their salaries and investments.
What is being used as the basis of discussions is the CHANGE in RPI, not the RPI itself. The current RPI is at a level of anout 238 ( http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-and-tables/data-selector.html?cdid=CHAW&dataset=mm23&table-id=2.1), not the 5% previous year's increase in RPI.
Everyone is actually discussing how the RPI changes over time, not the RPI itself. Terminology has become confused and it leads to a misunderstanding of how a bond like this is set up.
report thisPaul Eden
Dec 03, 2011 at 12:02
I am interested but wonder if I would need a broker to buy it in the first place. At my age I might just get away with saving in this bond for eight years for a small sum of money - perhaps £3000. I couldn't do more I think.
report thisPensionsManager
Dec 03, 2011 at 13:18
This is the full low down.
The 8-year Tesco Bank bond will be linked to the Retail Prices Index (RPI), so if the cost of everyday goods, such as food and fuel, continues to rise, so too will the amount you receive in interest.
Investors will be paid twice a year with the interest rate, or coupon, based on an annual rate of 1% but adjusted according to fluctuations in the RPI. The bonds can be bought through stockbrokers and financial advisers until 9 December.
Interest rate can go up or down.
Each bond is worth £100 at face value and the minimum investment is £2,000, which would buy you 20 bonds. The amount of interest paid will be calculated based on the difference between the RPI at April 2011 (234.4), which was eight months before the issue and the RPI at eight months before each semi-annual payment, the first being on 16 June 2012.
So if you were to invest £2,000, and the RPI stayed the same, dropped or rose by no more than 1% during that 6 month period, the interest you would get would be £10, as your semi annual payment would be 0.5% (as the 1% is an annual rate).
If RPI rose by 3% over the six months then your coupon would be £10.20 but if the RPI fell by 3% then your coupon would be £9.80. During the six months from April to October 2011 the RPI rose by 1.53% to 238, which would have earned you £10.15 in interest on £2,000.
Capital can’t fall.
If you hold onto the bond until it matures in December 2019, you would get back your £2,000 plus an additional amount, assuming RPI is higher in April 2019 than it was eight years earlier.
For example, if the RPI rose by 1% per year for eight years, your capital return would be £2,165.60 and if it rose by 3% per year then the total would be £2,533.20. Even if RPI falls during the eight-year lifetime of the bond, Tesco Bank would still return the £2,000 in full, providing it is still in business.
Not FSCS protected.
The bonds can be held within a stocks and share ISA or a SIPP, so investors could get the tax benefits on any returns.
It is important to remember that this is a long-term investment and it’s about taking a bet on inflation rates over eight years and hedging against that. While your capital cannot go down, it could still not grow if RPI drops over that period and the interest on your investment could also be extremely low if that were the case.
Another note of caution is that the bonds are not protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme and although you could opt to sell them before the eight years is up, there is no guarantee that they would be worth as much as they are when you buy them.
report thisDaye Tucker
Dec 03, 2011 at 18:57
Guys, this is TESCO, be afraid.
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