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Markets shrug off poll pointing to Labour surge

Tories' lead over Labour now down to just three points in YouGov poll, but mixed picture presented by rival surveys leads to muted reaction.

 
Markets shrug off poll pointing to Labour surge

Investors have shrugged off a fresh YouGov poll showing the Conservatives' lead over Labour down to just three points, as pollsters present a mixed picture of voter intentions ahead of next week's general election.

The new poll showed 42% support for the Conservatives versus 39% for Labour, a dramatic narrowing of the gap between the parties, which had stood at 16 points in a YouGov poll just two weeks ago.

But the pound proved resilient on the news, falling just 0.2% against the dollar to $1.287. That contrasts with bigger falls for the pound yesterday morning, when another YouGov poll pointed to the possibility of a hung parliament, and last week, at the first sign of a big narrowing of the gap between the two parties.

YouGov's polling has tended to show a narrower lead for the Conservatives than rival surveys. Yesterday a poll from Kantar showed the Tories' lead over Labour had stretched to 10 points.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index, said the mixed picture painted by the polls had prompted a muted reaction from markets.

'At this late stage of the UK election campaign, the pollsters are more dividend on the size of the Conservative party's lead that at any other time during the election,' she said.

'This makes the outcome even harder to predict, and makes it difficult to price in the potential impact from the election result ahead of time.

'We have a sneaking feeling that the market actually expects a pretty similar election result to what we have today, which would leave things virtually unchanged. This looks an increasingly likely outcome, if you average the polls, hence the muted response from the market is hardly surprising.'

Barclays raises 3i

The weak pound helped lift the FTSE 100 35 points, or 0.5%, to 7,555 with technology and industrial stocks providing the upward momentum.

3I Group (III ) rose 3.4% to 925.5p after Barclays raised its price target to 980p from 750p and rated the private equity company ‘overweight’ after a positive trading update from Action, the Dutch discount retailer that accounts for 30% of 3I’s portfolio.

Mediclinic (MDCM) dropped 4% to 777p after Credit Suisse cut its rating on the private health-care provider to ‘neutral’ from ‘outperform’ and Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’.

Takeover speculation lifted satellite operator Inmarsat (ISA) to the top of the ‘mid cap’ FTSE 250 with a 5.4% gain to 843p after Reuters reported that Japan’s Softbank would let a $14 billion merger between its OneWeb startup and Intelsat collapse, raising the possibility it could turn to another target.

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9 comments so far. Why not have your say?

samplewriter

Jun 01, 2017 at 12:42

Expect the conservative party to win up to 400 seats they will probably lose about one seat to the lib dems only because money that was used by labour has been transfered to the lib dems our area has been swamped by leaflets garden signs it is embarassing to travel in the marple area and see this. how the electoral comitee have allowed this is one of the wonders of the world .

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samplewriter

Jun 01, 2017 at 13:06

I am fairly sure that the polls know that the conservatives have a very very big lead over the other parties if they was to give the truthfull result they know that labour will face a wipe out .corbyn has been given the news already just look at his face you gov dont want to see labour destroyed .look at the brexit vote .they will probably try to give labour a surge to help them out.

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RL

Jun 01, 2017 at 14:43

I don't buy any of the above conspiracy theories.

However, this uncertainty has a silver lining for Mrs May. It will help get out her vote which will no longer be complacent. It will help dissuade from voting those moderate Labour inclined supporters who are afraid Corbyn will get in 'by accident'.

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Moylando

Jun 01, 2017 at 15:15

Of all the things that have appeared in the last million years, the one with absolutely no value to people other than the "meeja" are opinion polls

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Sinic

Jun 01, 2017 at 15:48

Pollsters and polls are all over the place. I put far greater credence on the bookies. These people, unlike the pollsters, keep it simple, stupid and invariably make money. To bet on a Tory victory you would need to stake £9 to win £1. To bet on a Labour victory you would need to stake only £1 to win £7.

With odds like that I do expect to see Mrs May back in Downing Street with a moderately increased majority, but no landslide I'm afraid to say. The next week will be a nail biter and next Thursday night sleepless. Then we will know if the UK has a future outside the EU or a future economy on a par with Italy.

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samplewriter

Jun 01, 2017 at 15:51

Markets shrug off poll pointing to labour surge. people are getting wise to to the tricks polls use. after brexit everyone should have cottoned on to who actully runs these polls .how the national papers use the fictional propaganda that year after year have people on the wrong foot give concern to some of the stories they enlarge for their entertainment.

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RL

Jun 01, 2017 at 15:55

@ Sinic Well the punters (not the bookies) got it wrong on Brexit and Trump. Contrary to what you imply, it is the punters that make the price, and of course guess whose side weight of money is on, so I wouldn't be too trusting of the odds. They just tell you where is the weight of money.

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samplewriter

Jun 01, 2017 at 16:03

When you fill in the pages of missinformation for a poll .everone should try it with at least two polls they have complete control over how much of what you have ticked off gets into the poll. you could be marked radical if any tick is not suitable for them to record many people refuse to give you gov personal information . do that they will blacklist you . comply and you have given them your bank details

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samplewriter

Jun 01, 2017 at 16:21

bookies do not like to lose they was complaining about losing at the big jumps meeting the previous year .they will form a book even before any bets are struck .with brexit they must have made a right packet i would say hundreds of thousands i took 11to four on the leave winning nigel farage won a gret deal on it he was shown putting on his bet a great win .the bookies must have taken a lot of cash from europe as well as the uk never back large odds on many time even on two horse races the outsider wins i was looking at the racing form .past results .one race betting 14 to 1 on the favourite 9 to one the winning outsider .

only bet odds against .the outsider in this election is not worth taking the loss

look at the racing form the day before the race takes place the prices there are paper prices without any money invested on them so its the bookies that that form the initial prices not the punters..

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