Morning Line: Population growth and scorched public services – an explosive mix?

At not much more than 200,000 square kilometres, and around 70 million of us expected to share it by 2030, space is at something of a premium in Britain.

But what happens when the rocketing number of people – there are projected to be nine million more of us in 2030 than there were in 2008 – coincides with years of cuts to public services, an unbending refusal to save for the future even when increasing healthcare promises a drawn out retirement, and a hefty bill to pay for the generation of baby boomers?

That’s the question very few people are asking. But greater life expectancy and higher birth rates coupled with increased net migration into the UK, will have an all-pervasive impact. There’s infrastructure. How will we provide the roads, schools, hospitals and power needed? Then there are sewers, water treatment plants – how we deal with pollution and waste? Already stretched rail and road networks will become an increasing financial burden. How about natural resources such as food, water and energy?

How do we provide homes, pensions and jobs for everyone without bankrupting the state and over-inflating an already bulbous housing market? Tentative increases to the retirement and state pension age are merely a start.

Unfortunately the solution for the current financial crisis, major spending cuts to slash our deficit, will only accelerate this next one which will put increased pressure on public services.  

Economists argue that population growth helps the economy to grow, helps to sustain the swelling dependent elderly population (the ‘new blood’ argument which NGO Forum for the Future likens to a pyramid scheme), and brings in extra skills. Few argue with the economists on this one, but at a time when some public services are being cut back by as much as 40%, this equation suddenly changes – are we planning for this? Sustainability and population plays second fiddle in arguments about the economy, yet it is such an intrinsic part of the economic engine.

The problem as highlighted by the Forum for the Future is that the growing population is yet to make it into the realms of debate, let alone front line policy making. ‘Far from engaging in serious discussions about population growth, we seem stuck on the question of whether we should even be having those discussions or not’, the organisation said in a report last week.

Politicians treat the area with kid gloves because they fear it is controversial and they will be accused of extremism or invite support from far-right organisations. It is also ignored because the problem extends beyond the life of a political term and has not yet captured the public imagination in the same way that climate change has.

It is also because the issue of immigration, a topic which comes with a red flashing warning sign, is central to the debate. ‘Too often debate about population is left to the mercies of the far right ideologies,’ the Forum for the Future says. Family planning ditto. To talk of the problems of the growing population draws comparisons with Chinese one child policy and the evils of ‘population control’. You’re never far from accusations of a lack of respect for human life or eugenics by even suggesting that a growing population could be a problem.

Among the few bodies actively engaging in this debate, the environmental lobby figures heavily. This is a set that is often dismissed for their obvious agenda, not helped by the recent furore over the interpretation of climate change data, or Climategate as it has been called.

Equally, suggestions that the UK population must be cut to 30 million if we are to feed ourselves sustainably aren’t helpful in a debate that must remain pragmatic if a government is to win public support for action.

But it is not just think tanks and NGOs that are beating the drum. Barclays Capital used its widely-read Equity Gilt Study report to warn that increasing life expectancy will lead to an explosion in government debt over the long run as the government will have to spend more on pensions and healthcare. Such an increase in the size of the older population will also push the ratio of those saving and those spending heavily out of sync, the report concluded.

The extent of the longer-term threat posed by population growth is hard to know, as are its solutions. But it shares one common cause with the shorter-term financial crisis we face now, excessive consumption and binging society. They also share the same aim of greater efficiency in public services, while people must be encouraged to save more and accept that the government cannot be relied upon to keep them in comfort during retirement.