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Move over Brics, 'Civets' have arrived
Up to now, media attention and investment performance in emerging markets has been focused mainly on the big four of Brazil, Russia, India and China. But is it time to take the 'Civets' seriously?
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More FTSE charts & pricesby Matthew Goodburn on Jul 28, 2010 at 13:29
Up to now, media attention and investment performance in emerging markets has been focused mainly on the big four of Brazil, Russia, India and China. But is it time to take the 'Civets' seriously?
It was Goldman Sachs that coined 'BRICs' in 2001 and more recently came up with the 'Next 11' - the group of 11 emerging market countries with the largest populations outside of the Brics which it believed would be most likely to challenge the growth levels of developed world economies over the next few years.
Meanwhile HSBC chief executive Michael Geoghegan is credited with coming up with 'Civets' - made up of Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa - which are being tipped by some to be the particular emerging market growth stories to watch in the next few years.
Research from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) predicts the Civets will post annualised GDP growth of 4.5% over the next twenty years.
This is way ahead of estimates for the G7 countries, which come in at around 1.8%, although it still lags just behind predictions for the Brics —where the research predicts annual growth of 4.9%.
As the 'Next 11' is purely made up of the non-Bric emerging markets with the biggest populations, Civet members Indonesia, Turkey, Vietnam and Egypt all make that list, but the EIU argues that the geographically diverse Civets all have reasons beyond their population size to suggest they are among the biggest future emerging market winners.
All have significant and young populations, ranging from Indonesia's 240 million at the top end, to Colombia's 49 million and South Africa's 46 million.
The latter two only just missed out on the 'Next 11' list by population size too.
Diverse economies
Each of the Civets also has a relatively diverse economy which is not over-reliant on commodities and with the exception of Egypt, the EIU research points out that inflation levels look to be pretty much under control.
None of the Civets have hugely inflated current-account deficits although Vietnam is the worst offender in this department.
As is the case elsewhere, fiscal deficits have generally risen following the global financial crisis but the public debt levels of each of the six Civets remains reasonably low.
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15 comments so far. Why not have your say?
John Hill
Jul 28, 2010 at 16:16
Having been to Vietnam a couple of times, I have seen the potential and it is certainly worth a small %age of anyones investment portfolio.
Bear in mind however,that it is still a communist country.
report thisCognoscenti 36
Jul 28, 2010 at 16:24
I have been invested in Thailand since the beginning of the year but cannot understand why its stock market has climbed nearly 25% when it has apparently severe political/social problems.
report thisJames Ferguson
Jul 28, 2010 at 16:48
Are there any funds that specialise in either Civets or Next 11 countries as yet?
report thismannyZ
Jul 28, 2010 at 17:33
My daughter has £5000 to invest, is it to risky for a long term investment in CIVETS or better off in the other "BRICs" emerging markets.
report thisFranco
Jul 28, 2010 at 18:31
Egypt and S. Africa gtowth countries? Are you joking or trying to be politically correct? They have worse corrption than Zimbabwe
report thisGraham Willows
Jul 28, 2010 at 18:31
Good advice !
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 28, 2010 at 19:52
The BRIC's have saved my portfolio. ..they bounced back quickly enough and are doing well for me. Not too sure about CIVETS.. I personally would do more research on that.
report thisMichael Hellman
Jul 28, 2010 at 21:27
Where are the unit trust managers!! Ive been tracking Turkey, Vietnam, Indonesia, through ETF's for a couple of years Turkey has been the outperformer the others a poor showing even Barings Korean fund which almost mirrored the ftse in the last two years. The Frontier ETF, XSFR has been a dissapointment.
So while I am a believer in the future prospects of the Civets and the next 11, I would rather pay a fund manager and invest in a Unit Trust if one existed. But given what I consider to be the slowness of the unit trust industry in that they wont get in on the act until all the easy gains have been made, it may have to be an I.T. does anyone know of one specialising in the Civets?
report thisVictor Meldrew
Jul 29, 2010 at 01:26
mannyZ, your question about investing £5000 is a very hard one to give a good answer to. It depends on circumstances, attitude to risk, and how long the investment is likely to be held for. I don't know how well informed you or your daughter are about investing. Also I don't know the law about giving investment advice and I expect it's easy for a well intentioned amateur to fall foul of the law.
I'll just mention how I might proceed if I had any sense instead of betting half my money on risky tech stocks and small-caps.
I would go to:
http://www.trustnet.com/Managers/AlphaManagers.aspx
and find a list of fund managers (of unit trust aka OEICs) rated highly by trustnet, with long term performance.
I would pick some of those, whether or not I also invested in a risky civet or a BRIC.
I would research currency risk, ISAs, funds supermarkets, and fees and terms & conditions (including performance fees) of any fund before investing.
Even the world's most successful investor has had bad years and made mistakes, so investing through good managers would not guarantee me success, especially over a short period.
Although I would talk too much about it I would not claim that approach suited anyone else or was the best way to go about investing.
report thisVictor Meldrew
Jul 29, 2010 at 01:38
mannyZ, your question about investing £5000 is a very hard one to give a good answer to. It depends on circumstances, attitude to risk, and how long the investment is likely to be held for. I don't know how well informed you or your daughter are about investing. Also I don't know the law about giving investment advice and I expect it's easy for a well intentioned amateur to fall foul of the law.
I'll just mention how I might proceed if I had any sense instead of betting half my money on risky tech stocks and small-caps.
I would go to:
http://www.trustnet.com/Managers/AlphaManagers.aspx
and find a list of fund managers (of unit trust aka OEICs) rated highly by trustnet, with long term performance.
I would pick some of those, whether or not I also invested in a risky civet or a BRIC.
I would research currency risk, ISAs, funds supermarkets, and fees and terms & conditions (including performance fees) of any fund before investing.
Even the world's most successful investor has had bad years and made mistakes, so investing through good managers would not guarantee me success, especially over a short period.
Although I would talk too much about it I would not claim that approach suited anyone else or was the best way to go about investing.
None of the above constitutes investment advice.
report thisBrian Pearson
Jul 29, 2010 at 10:37
I tend to agree with Victor here Manny. The markets are still volatile and although there seem to be some potential good buys in stocks, maybe a balanced investment strategy would benefit you and protect (as much as possible) the capital you are looking to invest. Bear in mind, that the returns may/will be lower, on some products such as Bonds, ISA's and other less risky investments, but you need to work out what your attitude is to risk before you proceed and of course how long you want to tie the money away for. Always remember this simple statement. No one, even the most skillful fund managers know what may happen to shares, or other investment products in 5, 10 0r 15 years time, let alone next year, so invest in rsiky shares ONLY if you can afford to lose the money.
Good luck to you.
PS. I have just invested £4k for my daughter but for the medium/long term (6 years)
report thisBrian Pearson
Jul 29, 2010 at 10:38
Oh! and like Victor, none of my comments constitutes financial advice.
report thisHUFC
Jul 29, 2010 at 10:47
MannyZ - think about drip feeding the £5000, rather than invest in it one go. That way it benefits from pound cost averaging, wherever you decide to invest
report thisJETTE BARTON
Jul 29, 2010 at 15:06
Colombia could come v.good. Also look at Peru.. Both commodity driven.
report thismannyZ
Jul 30, 2010 at 22:58
Thanks for all your comments, much appreciated, easier to read suggestions for other people than risking your own daughters money, short term would be a good idea and I agree with HUFC to drip feed a fund rather than a lump sum. thanks Victor I will be looking into all your good advice, will have to make a good decision,
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