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PM warns of Brexit threat to state pension 'triple lock'

The state pension 'triple lock' could be cut if Britain votes to leave the European Union, David Cameron has warned.

 
PM warns of Brexit threat to state pension 'triple lock'

The state pension 'triple lock' could be cut if Britain votes to leave the EU, the prime minister has warned. 

The so-called 'triple lock' means state pension payments rise each year by the higher of prices, earnings or 2.5%.

The triple lock was introduced by the Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition government and has been one of its most popular pension polices.

Writing in The Telegraph, Cameron (pictured) said leaving the EU would have dire economic consequences for the UK, increasing the deficit. Since further cuts to public services would not make the difference, he said, the government would be left with some 'invidious choices'.

He said: 'One area we’d be forced to look at is pensions. We’ve made a special effort to protect pensioners. We said: pensioners should expect dignity and security in retirement. That’s why, in 2010, we introduced the triple lock.'

But, he added, 'if we had a big black hole, we could struggle to justify this special protection any longer. In fact, even if we could justify it morally, it wouldn’t actually be affordable.

'Not when pensions represent a huge portion of public spending – over £90 billion this year – and when inflation is forecast to hit 4% if we leave Europe. So here is the reality: if we leave, the pensioner benefits would be under threat, and the triple lock could no longer be guaranteed in the long term.' 

Concerns over its long-term affordability have been raised a number of times over the last few years.  Despite this the government has pledged to keep it. 

In October, when asked about the long term affordability of the triple lock, pensions minister Ros Altmann said it was here to stay.

She said: 'The state pension is being reformed, the state pension is sustainable, the demographics have been clear and increases in the state pension have been built in to cope with some of the demographic pressures. It's there for the duration of this parliament, and is a clear commitment...we don't see any need or justification to change it.'

Last year the Government Actuary Department published a report which said the total cost of the policy could be ‘significantly greater’ than first thought. The report, later taken down from the government website, said it could cost an extra £6 billion a year.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has also warned that the policy risks undermining chancellor George Osborne’s commitment to reaching a surplus by 2020.

After resigning his post as work and pensions secretary, Iain Duncan Smith called for a rethink of the triple lock due to intergenerational unfairness.

He said: 'We have a triple lock on pensions which I was proud to do six years ago, but with inflation running at zero, we really need to look at things like this and ask “do we just keep saying it’s working age [people] who bear the brunt [of cuts].’

52 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Mickey

Jun 13, 2016 at 09:51

Cameron is certainly doing himself no favours during this referendum, he is exposed as a threatening bully whose days must surely be numbered. He fails to tell us what will happen when we stay in the EU and has shown that he is incapable or unwilling to show faith in the British Public.

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dd

Jun 13, 2016 at 10:27

No mention of a cap on some of the highest public sector or politicians' index-linked, defined benefit pensions with early availability, which would be equally unaffordable. In contrast: A promise of No Change for 25 years...

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Gil

Jun 13, 2016 at 11:01

I am 85years old my wife 60, Cameron has changed her retirement date from 60 to 66 years old, cost to us over £30K this is money we have been paying in since paying tax ,we need honesty not charity

Since Maxwell stole money from workers pension funds, politicians have been going to stop this happening I think BHS will make it 7 since then.

If he needs money why not stop paying crooks overseas aid .and stop those who he favours from evading tax in tax exile countries .

Its our money they are squandering, if he wants to look generous to other countries give his own money ..

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Gil

Jun 13, 2016 at 11:05

For Ros Altman read Judas

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Clive B

Jun 13, 2016 at 12:20

Cameron has clearly decided that a large number of voters either own property or are pensioners or both. Hence he implies property prices will fall (when in fact he was measuring the difference in two possible price increases) and pensions will be reduced.

As to the benefits of being in the EU - big fat zero !

Shameful way to run a referendum. I used to believe (yes, naively) that most of what politicians say was close to the truth, but having seen this I'm not so certain.

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dd

Jun 13, 2016 at 12:40

How can they possibly question the integrity of others? Pot, kettle.

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Sinic

Jun 13, 2016 at 17:13

The Remainers 'Project Fear' continues unabated led by the duplicitous Cameron.

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John Lacy

Jun 13, 2016 at 17:17

This is very convenient for Mr Cameron--it is obvious that the triple lock is not affordable so to be able to blame someone else for it's demise is manna from heaven

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Rosemary Pettit

Jun 13, 2016 at 17:23

Sounds right, John Lacy. Very convenient. Is there nothing he won't dredge up to try to scare us? Grrh!

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John Lacy

Jun 13, 2016 at 17:38

Gil @11.01--Whilst I sympathise with your circumstances the change in pension ages is not down to Mr Cameron--the current changes have been in the pipeline for over 20 years and whilst the successive governments have not done enough to publicise the changes they have been published and there to see for anyone taking an interest. The fact that these changes appear to be a surprise to large numbers of people reflects badly on their lack of research and planning for retirement.

The time to have confronted this situation was 20 years ago not now.

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Chris S-S

Jun 13, 2016 at 17:39

If inflation rises to 4% as he predicts, and wages fall as predicted by others in the Remain camp then the triple lock will nit be needed and will not add any extra cost. Or is he suggesting that he'll break the link with inflation?

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Pat Strong

Jun 13, 2016 at 18:18

Gil - whilst some changes were announced but individuals not informed under the 1995 pension act, the recent changes had far too little notice. 10 years was required, this simply was not given.

John Lacey - I wholeheartedly agree, the triple lock is not guaranteed and is not affordable. It would go anyway. The only reasons it remains at the moment is to get the 'oldies' vote at the next general election and for tht Judas Ros Altmann to be able to justify withdrawal of inherited SERPS and GMP increases by saying overall people will be no worse off with the pension reforms. This is an outright LIE. When we all forget about the old system, and when the te is right for lying, deceitful poloticians , the triple lock would become 'unaffordable' and disappear.

Absolute scare tactics by Cameron, knowing the older vote is Brexiting, got lost Cameron, we won't fall for this, you certainly make me more lucky to vote out every time you open your mouth.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 13, 2016 at 18:36

It seems Neighbours, David and George are singing from different Hymn sheets!

George told Andrew Neil just days ago the triple lock was safe whatever happened in the referendum. Yesterday David tells Andrew Marr something quite different!

One could say the Remain are in a shambles, and they expect Joe Public to believe all their protestations. Best look into a Crystal Ball.

One does wonder how the Country is now being Managed with the Executive totally focused on creating mayhem.

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Ian Holmes

Jun 13, 2016 at 18:47

Does anyone listen to their hysterics and take Cameron & Osborne seriously any more? I can't believe I voted for such an unscrupulous pair - feeding up a "Daily Scare"

Cameron goes off to Europe shouting "neutral" until he has negotiated a "deal". He comes back (tail between legs, so to speak) as a modern day Chamberlain with a scrap of worthless paper and now its Armageddon if we leave. Whatever the outcome on 23 June. He and Osborne can say "goodbye" to their office. Both have been shown to be charlatans (I'm trying to be charitable here!). They have made me so angry with their antics.

Did Cameron not understand the now implied implications on the pensions before he went to "negotiate" as a "neutral" PM? Did he not consider all the other "end of world" scenarios when he took his "neutral" stance? If he didn't see that then, how can he possibly convince us that he can predict the future now? Crystal balls or no balls? Lies, damn lies and now statistics! (Plucked out of thin air)

Now Prudence Brown comes into the fray. Wasn't it Prudence that left the cash box empty? We've 10 days of that to come. Oh joy!

Mr B-Liar has been to N Ireland with his "mate" Major Grey. The former now admits to poor judgement on war in Iraq and the other couldn't hold a cabinet together. I think Irish logic, source of much affectionate fun in the UK, will prevail over that pair. The Irish may amuse, but they're not stupid.

At least we are in the position as an electorate to kick 'em out of office (they sill get a £30,000"goodbye" when we do so - we are really taken as mugs by these guys). If we "Remain" the Cabal in Brussels will turn us into an emasculated state.

We can't have free trade with our friends and relatives (Canada and Australia) because Brussels has unassociated issues and says "No". These are Commonwealth for goodness sakes - longstanding friends.

My ghas is flabbered at the whole "IN" campaign (the Brexiters", not without fault need to look in the mirror too). Watch this video. It is reasoned and well presented by a man who will lose his job on "Brexit.

http://viewpure.com/qmCAnQmqa9U?ref=bkmk

And this one by David Buik a well respected and seasoned city stalwart:

http://www.iii.co.uk/tv/episode/brexit%3A-why-frankfurt-and-paris-can-whistle

....and just for good measure, here is Nigel Farage addressing the European parliament (I love the priceless expressions on Merkel's and Hollande's faces!) - without a pint in his hand and looking rather statesmanly for once!

This is "Last Chance Saloon" for Britain as we know and love it.

Talking of saloons - I need a G& T after all that!

"Vote early and vote often!"

Bet you can't guess how I'm voting................

.

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Pat Strong

Jun 13, 2016 at 19:28

I'm with you Ian. A big fat BREXIT!

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Roger Savage

Jun 13, 2016 at 19:39

Plenty in the foreign aid budget though, of course. Charity begins at home except, as others have noted, pensions aren't charity from the government - they're something people have worked for and paid into the system to receive.

The most disgustingly ironic statement from Camoron in this story is:

"We said: pensioners should expect dignity and security in retirement"

Ahahaha - yes, the sort of dignity they get in the NHS where they're fobbed off (as my parents have been) whilst those who effectively just walk into the country, having contributed zilch, receive treatment without question and put massive pressure on all public services. I can't really blame those taking advantage (human nature) but do blame those, like Camoron, who have let it happen to the detriment of the indigenous population.

Also, I don't see any rhetoric about such benefits being removed come Brexit - just target the pensioners. Disgraceful.

Frankly, every word that comes out of Camoron convinces me that my long held Leave opinion is 101% right. The man is a traitor to the UK and has added to B Liar's plan to systematically destroy the heritage and sovereignty of this once great nation and allowed it to be invaded without war.

How on earth can anyone believe his much vaunted "negotiations" on EU membership had any meat to them at all? It was all for show.

Of course Brexit won't be without problems (assuming the vote isn't 'thrown' and it even happens). There's no doubt that. But continuing in the EU - please... What started out as a trading pact has morphed into some vile entity and a failed project - one that affects people's lives and communities in so many negative ways. For the few positives there may be of being in it, it's simply not worth the price this country has paid and will continue to pay.

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Pat Strong

Jun 13, 2016 at 19:42

Absolutely spot on Roger S.

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Jonathan

Jun 13, 2016 at 22:45

Cameron is trying to scare pensioners into voting to stay in, as a lot of pensioners have said a Brexit won't affect their generation so they aren't going to vote, just leave it to the young. The government are already contemplating removing the triple lock Brexit or no Brexit. Personally I'm not in favour of a Brexit but I think Cameron's tactics stink. If he threatens to remove the pension triple lock he should also threaten the salaries of the PM's and MP's and also promise to keep the triple lock if there is no Brexit.

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albion

Jun 14, 2016 at 03:48

Cameron will go down as the most despised PM in living memory (even worse than Blair) and I hope one day in the future he will pay the penalty.

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Ian Holmes

Jun 14, 2016 at 12:39

Please indulge me one more time.

Here is a full length feature film: "Brexit: the Movie".

It is financed through crowdfunding - unlike the Government campaign which has misappropriated £10 million of taxpayers' money. (Well, that's the amount that has been admitted).

.

This is a reasoned, measured view with historical and topical support and should be watched by "Brexiters" and "Remainers" alike.

Pass it to as many friends as you can. It rises far above the political and large corporate hysteria that abounds at the moment. Our future prosperity, security and sovereignty depends on the outcome of the 23 June. So we need to choose wisely and in an informed rather than emotional and panicked manner.

https://youtu.be/eYqzcqDtL3k

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invsb

Jun 14, 2016 at 16:31

Why we should Remain

• A strong, dynamic economy. We have had the fastest growing economy of the G7 countries over the last 35 years in the EU and we have the highest ever rate of employment. All reputable economic studies from the Treasury and the IMF to Oxford University and the London School of Economics show we would be worse off by tens of billions of pounds outside the EU. We have access to the single market and through the EU trade agreements with more than 60 other countries with more on the way. Nearly 50% of British trade is with the rest of the EU, and it is estimated that over three million jobs in this country are connected to membership. Businesses large and small are in favour of Remain.

• A strong NHS. Funding for the NHS depends on having a strong economy. Over 100,000 people from other EU countries work in the NHS and social care, including 10% of doctors. NHS staff, management and scientists agree that we should Remain.

• Security. The EU has helped to keep the peace in Western Europe since its foundation. Before 1945, Europe was regularly devastated by conflict and war. Economic interdependence now makes war unthinkable between member states. The EU has also promoted the consolidation and spread of liberal democracy, in post-war Germany and Italy, in post-authoritarian Spain, Portugal and Greece, and most recently in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe. For these reasons, the EU was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012. The current and all former heads of NATO and 12 former heads of the British Armed Forces agree that UK membership of the EU is important in maintain peace and security in Europe. The European Arrest Warrant has allowed us to return criminals to other EU countries and bring to justice here thousands of British criminals who had fled to Europe.

• Science and research. These are boosted by joint scientific and university programmes across the EU and the free movement of scientists and engineers. Over 150 members of the Royal Society of scientists have said that leaving the EU would be ‘a disaster for science and universities.’ Universities, including Oxford and Cambrige, support remaining in the EU as do over 80% of students. Airbus in Broughton has highlighted that moving experts between their sites around Europe is vital for the way they work.

• Opportunities for us and our children. You can freely travel, study, work and live anywhere in the EU. The right of free movement for EU citizens hugely benefits the UK. It boosts our economy and enriches us culturally. Universities in particular benefit from the rights of students and world-class researchers and teachers to move freely. Moreover, many hundreds of thousands of British people live, study and work in other EU countries. We will all be poorer if we lose this right. Young voters are overwhelmingly in favour of staying in the EU as they see these opportunities as a right which would go if we left the EU. There are as many UK citizens in other EU countries as there are people from other EU countries in the UK – we get just as much benefit.

• Rights, protection and benefits. The EU is a force for progressive values. It champions our civil and political rights, and has outlawed discrimination based on gender, race and sexuality. The EU provides a guarantee for workers’ rights, women’s rights and equality throughout the EU. The EHIC card gives you health protection when travelling anyone in the EU, Open Skies has greatly reduced the cost of air travel in the EU and mobile roaming tariffs within the EU will soon be zero.

• Britain leading in Europe and the world. Britain should be leading in the EU and across the world and our influence is amplified by being part of the EU. We have control over rules, opt-outs to protect our unique position and a veto on important matters such as new countries joining. Crucially, membership allows us to influence EU laws. It also allows us to play a role in reforming the EU’s institutions and procedures. Were Britain to leave the EU, it might be allowed to stay in the single market, but it would no longer have a say on deciding its rules or shaping its future. Through the EU we are a rule-maker on the single market, but outside we would be a rule-taker just having to accept the rules with no say.

• Keep the UK together. Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar and the Falklands are all likely to vote heavily in favour of Remain. If we left, Scotland would call another independence referendum. It would be a disaster for Gibraltar and the Falklands as the vast majority of their exports go to the EU. Putting up a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic would according to the Irish prime minister endanger the stability of the peace process.

• Farming and the environment. The National Farmers' Union, which represents about 70% of full-time farmers has recently stated: 'On the balance of existing evidence available to us at present, the interests of farmers are best served by our continuing membership of the European Union.' This statement came after an evaluation of the pros and cons and a survey of members that gave a 2 to 1 result in favour of remaining in the EU. Consider that 93% of UK beef exports go to the EU. If we cut ourselves off from that market, as Michael Gove wants, then farmers will struggle. There are environmental standards to ensure there is no race to the bottom. Britain’s beaches were cleaned up as a result of an EU-wide initiative to improve environmental standards. The RSPB and WWF have said that the natural environment will be safer if we stay in the EU.

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invsb

Jun 14, 2016 at 16:31

Why brexit is wrong

• Brexit would be an economic disaster for Britain, putting us in recession. The cost of the EU from our budget is about £50m a week (not £350m brexit claim), but if we left we wouldn’t save any money as the damage to the economy of cutting ourselves off from the market where almost half our exports go would cost us tens of billions of pounds. In negotiating a post-brexit agreement we need the EU more than they need us – we export over 12% of our GDP to the EU, but the EU only exports 3% of its GDP to us. What’s more, many foreign firms, like Nissan, set up shop in Britain because we are a gateway to sell stuff to the whole EU. If we quit, other countries might grab our jobs by luring companies away from the UK.

• Brexit would wipe out manufacturing in Britain. The Brexit supporters want us to reduce our tariffs to zero without any agreement on lower tariffs from other countries. This means for example, China could flood our market with cheap steel and wipe out our steel industry. UKIP opposed support for the British steel industry in the European Parliament. Patrick Minford, the lead economist for the Brexit side, said in March, 'Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing'. There are over 2.5 million jobs that are dependent on manufacturing in this country.

• A weak Brexit economy, means cuts in public services and a weaker NHS. All major unions, including the NHS unions, are in favour of staying in as they know the damage brexit would cause the economy and therefore the NHS. 10% of doctors and over 100,000 NHS and social care staff come from other EU countries.

• Don’t trust Brexit campaigners. Boris Johnson wrote of privatising NHS services when he said: “If people have to pay for them, they will value them more,” and he has demanded the scrapping of the EU’s social charter which protects employment conditions. Michael Gove called for the health service to be ‘denationalised’. Nigel Farage has said that the NHS should move towards an insurance-based system run by private companies and suggested that there was a big problem with employee rights and protections such as maternity leave for small firms. Arron Banks the millionaire backer and co-founder of the Leave.EU campaign in a recent interview stated: ‘If it were up to me, I’d privatise the NHS’. Tim Martin of Wetherspoons is a big user of zero-hour contracts giving people unstable incomes and hours.

• Consider who you’d be voting with. Remain is supported by the NHS staff, scientists and management, farmers, large and small businesses, universities, scientists, the current and all former NATO chiefs, 12 former heads of the British Armed Forces. Leave has the support of the far right of the Tory party, Farage, Gove, David Icke, Donald Trump, George Galloway and extreme right-wing parties such as the British National Party and the French National Front.

• Brexiters have no plan. What model would replace the EU? They won’t tell you because they just don’t know. Some talk about Norway, which pays as much as we do to the EU allows free movement but has no say in the rule-making, while Gove says we should become part of Greater Albania, which even the Albanian prime minister says is not a good position to be in. How can they ask you to leave if they have no alternative? It’s a fingers-crossed and let’s just hope for the best attitude with the catchphrase ‘we just don’t know’. They want you to gamble – to play Russian roulette with our economy and NHS.

• Red tape = rights and protection. The UK is already the second lightest regulated economy in the developed world according to the OECD. When brexiters talk about getting rid of red tape, they mean getting rid of workers’ rights, women’s rights and environmental protection.

• Brexit means less sovereignty, losing control. Brexiters call for sovereignty, but we would have less sovereignty if we left the EU, not more. An isolationist Britain would not have the power it has within the EU where it can influence policy and other non-EU countries would be more interested in the much large EU market than in Britain. We would have to be a rule-taker just accepting single market rules and technical standards, rather than being a rule-maker in jointly deciding on them in the EU.

• Free movement of people benefits the UK. Over 100,000 people from other EU countries work in the NHS and social care services. They also are key workers in house-building to provide accommodation we need and many other industries, like Airbus where research and free movement within the companies is essential. People from other EU countries make a net contribution to our economy allowing more investment in public services. They are generally well-educated and working. Most immigration to the UK comes from outside the EU. The Australian-style points system proposed by Brexit doesn’t work. It’s enormous red tape for our businesses and would slow the economy. We already use this system for non-EU immigration, and that is higher than EU immigration. Vote Leave have said they want to increase non-EU immigration. Australia has proportionally 3 times as much immigration as the UK. There are local issues where there is a sudden influx of migrants, but that should be resolved by our government’s planning. There are as many UK citizens in other EU countries as there are other EU citizens here. The rights of UK citizens in other EU countries would not be guaranteed if we left.

• Don’t believe the Leave lies. The EU is democratic. EU decisions are taken by the Council of Ministers (our elected government ministers) and the European Parliament (our elected MEPs). The Commission is unelected, but performs the same role as our unelected civil service. Turkey is not joining the EU – it applied to join in 1987 and has so far only completed 1 of 35 conditions - at the current rate of progress its application would be complete in the year 3000 and even then we have an absolute veto. There are no plans for a European army and we’d have a veto anyway. We would not be liable for any euro problems.

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Rosemary Pettit

Jun 14, 2016 at 16:58

Yawn.....

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Pat Strong

Jun 14, 2016 at 16:59

Have to happily disagree with invsp.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 14, 2016 at 17:01

Rosemary and Pat you are so right.

Same old claptrap with NO substance.

I doubt invsb has ever taken a risk in his/her life.

To obtain Freedom, people take risks....simple

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Roger Savage

Jun 14, 2016 at 18:23

@ invsb

This bit of your post where you state:

"Consider who you’d be voting with. Remain is supported by the NHS staff, scientists and management, farmers, large and small businesses, universities, scientists, the current and all former NATO chiefs, 12 former heads of the British Armed Forces. Leave has the support of the far right of the Tory party, Farage, Gove, David Icke, Donald Trump, George Galloway and extreme right-wing parties such as the British National Party and the French National Front".

Highly selective. Works both ways. To turn the tables...

Remain is supported by:.

1) A war criminal who seems to represent the most heinous example of a politician ever yet always escapes any sort of justice. Left wing (well...) but strangely a multi-millionaire providing advice to questionable regimes in exchange for cash. Dare say the EU provides him with a good few 'angles'.

2) A failed "no more boom or bust" chancellor who became an unelected PM. He presided over one of the greatest collapses of the UK economy having previously revealed his 'talent' by selling off 400 tonnes of our gold at a record low price.

3) A former Labour leader who failed in that capacity but was a roaring success (for himself) in Brussels. Doubt he's biased...

Remain / Leave - there's a case for either in differing degrees. Many intelligent (and highly) credible people will put good cases for and against - quite successfully. That's the non-selective reality.

Those who resort to being crudely selective or attempt to correlate 'undesirables' (crazy lumping Farage in with the National Front, btw) with a certain view doesn't mitigate against the facts as they stand. In fact, such an approach (cue Brown yesterday - 'Brexiters are like Donald Trump') drags any argument they may have into the gutter. Hitler seemed to be the de facto choice for casting a negative shadow on someone's opinion, however tenuous the link. Now it's Donald Trump. Pathetic. Childish. Makes people switch off.

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ADAM BRETT

Jun 14, 2016 at 18:36

Thanks invsp. I agree with you, as a businessman employing 50 people in England and indirectly employing several hundred more I am really afraid of the Little Englanders who seem to be winning in the referendum.

If we do vote to leave it will be a disaster for us all, we will be picking up the pieces for a decade. The simple truths stated by intelligent people in institutions like the Bank Of England, the London School of Economics etc., etc. are being branded as "project fear"

I do not know of a single serious institution backing Brexit. I am very willing to be put right on this by other contributors, if they can provide me a link to serious research that shows we will be better off out of Europe I am very happy to read it.

England is part of Europe. We may not like the institution much, and of course it is far from perfect, but it is not responsible for immigration, and it does not cost us that much money (we get most of the money we put in back).

Remember: Per person Denmark pays MORE into the EU than we do, and they are NOT MEMBERS. They are required to pay in to the EU in order to access EU markets. We would have to do this too, even after we leave.

Leaving will not save us money and it will not reduce immigration. Please don't vote to Leave if those are your reasons.

Several people have mentioned reducing international aid in this thread ... even though our contributions to international aid have nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. IF you want to change the levels of international aid ... campaign for that, but don't think voting to leave the EU is going to affect it!

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Roger Savage

Jun 14, 2016 at 21:13

@ Adam Brett

As I mentioned foreign aid, I thought I'd elaborate on why it is pertinent.

The argument from Cameron was that Brexit would affect pensions, the main topic of this story.

The argument is, Britain would be so hobbled by Brexit, pensions, to some extent, would be for the chop.

OK, so why not mention chopping the foreign aid budget (which would easily fill the void for pensions) or the benefits bill for 'could work, can't be bothered'? Simple. Pensioners are more likely to vote Leave than non-Pensioners, especially so-called 'Millennials'.

Therefore, Cameron is trying to sway opinion against a group he has clearly selected to bear the brunt of Brexit.

That's why it's as highly relevant as it is highly despicable as a tactic.

Would you like to expand on why leaving the EU will not reduce immigration? Would your position be that freedom of movement didn't increase it in the first place?

Also, please expand on how you support your assertion that holding an emergency interest rate at 0.5% for years and ignoring a credit bubble far bigger than that pre-2008 constitutes intelligence amongst the Bank of England? I should say I don't think their constituent members are daft but there's a difference between conniving (i.e. creating growth funded by debt to appease party donors - the BoE isn't REALLY independent) and fiscal intelligence. Are you aware of the massive deficit that those are negative on the economics of Brexit have presided over? Might that not tell you something about their competence or at least their allegiances? Do you think it affects their credibility?

Finally, Google will also bring up numerous 'big hitters' that support Brexit by the way. Peter Hargreaves, JCB, Dyson to name but a few.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 14, 2016 at 21:25

Roger, I am with you.

Don't worry after this referendum Cameron and Osborne are gone. They have lost all credibility during this campaign.

It is conjecture, but one wonders if Cameron had no choice but too call the Referendum now, as he knows of some nasties emerging later this year?

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dd

Jun 15, 2016 at 10:21

"why leaving the EU will not reduce immigration"

(I think they think) "because we intend to negotiate such a bad trade deal with Europe that we will have to continue to allow freedom of movement."

As I have said before, we are neither Norway not Switzerland. We have our own negotiating position.

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dd

Jun 15, 2016 at 10:22

... but the quality of our negotiators worries me.

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Rosemary Pettit

Jun 15, 2016 at 10:30

Did anyone hear Osborne on the Today programme this morning? I thought he was quite a cool customer but he was close to screeching this morning. Hardly keeping his head when all about him are losing theirs (sniff....)

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Pat Strong

Jun 15, 2016 at 10:38

I didn't see it, but I'm not surprised, he's starting to panic. He should have been honest, open and reasonable during this process and I for one would have listened to him. Now, every time I hear him or read what has to say I definitely move closer to BREXIT. Time to shut up Cameron, you're doing the 'in' campaign a great disservice.

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Thrugelmir

Jun 19, 2016 at 17:23

Isn't the triple lock at risk anyway? Still a black hole that needs to be filled.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 19, 2016 at 17:41

If the triple lock is at risk, even though Premier and Chancellor appear to have opposing thoughts, then so should International Aid.

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dd

Jun 19, 2016 at 18:47

If GDP were to drop so dramatically as predicted, then International Aid, if it is calculated as a percentage of GDP should drop also...

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invsb

Jun 19, 2016 at 22:59

Between 1950 and 1973, the year that Britain joined the EU, our economy was the slowest growing in Europe and the G7 countries. Since 1973, we are the fastest growing – better than Germany, France and the US - and we have the highest ever rate of employment. Since the single market began in 1993, our GDP is up 62% in real terms compared to 48% in Switzerland and 35% in Germany. All reputable economic studies from the Treasury and the IMF to Oxford University and the London School of Economics show we would be worse off by tens of billions of pounds outside the EU. We have access to the single market and through the EU trade agreements with more than 60 other countries with more on the way. Nearly 50% of British trade is with the rest of the EU, and it is estimated that over three million jobs in this country are connected to membership. Businesses large and small are in favour of Remain.

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Thrugelmir

Jun 19, 2016 at 23:12

Germany generates a trade surplus. The UK a trade deficit. What's the benefit of speed of growth . When all there's to show for the period is a debt mountain.

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invsb

Jun 19, 2016 at 23:27

Growth creates money and pays for the NHS and other public services. It's a good thing.

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Thrugelmir

Jun 19, 2016 at 23:29

GDP does not equate to profit.

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Peter in Cornwall

Jun 20, 2016 at 19:06

Triple lock may pale into significance in relation to unfunded public sector pension liabilities.

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invsb

Jun 20, 2016 at 21:13

• Brexit would be an economic disaster for Britain, putting us in recession. The cost of the EU is about 27p each a day (half the price of a Mars bar), but if we left we wouldn’t save any money as the damage to the economy of cutting ourselves off from the market where almost half our exports go would cost us tens of billions of pounds. In negotiating a post-brexit agreement we need the EU more than they need us – we export over 12% of our GDP to the EU, but the EU only exports 3% of its GDP to us. What’s more, many foreign firms, like Nissan, set up shop in Britain because we are a gateway to sell stuff to the whole EU. If we quit, other countries might grab our jobs by luring companies away from the UK.

• Brexit would wipe out manufacturing in Britain. The Brexit supporters want us to reduce our tariffs to zero without any agreement on lower tariffs from other countries. This means for example, China could flood our market with cheap steel and wipe out our steel industry. UKIP opposed support for the British steel industry in the European Parliament. Patrick Minford, the lead economist for the Brexit side, said in March, 'Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing'. There are over 2.5 million jobs that are dependent on manufacturing in this country.

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dd

Jun 21, 2016 at 01:34

Yes, Peter le P but those are part of overall remuneration/salary and there has been a promise not to make any change for 25 years so I guess that everything else has to be cut first.

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Gil

Jun 21, 2016 at 11:28

Dear invsb

I have no idea who you are but I suspect by your recent contributions, you may be in politics, the reason for this is the constant referral to costs when you or the rest of the objectors fall back on what it is going to cost without having a clue as to what they are talking about .

Let us look at your last statement < > the cost of the EU is about 27p each in this country..? as nobody now has any idea how many men women and children are in this country, your figures mean nothing..

As for the NHS, you must be in the civil service with private health insurance otherwise you would know the nhs is on its knees and can’t cope, only last week we were asked not to go to A&E as they were seeing patients in the car park and could not cope.

Only people with private insurance have a hope in hell of seeing their doctor on the day they are ill, you have to be fit to get to the surgery early to get in the que for an appointment

Thousands died in the last war to protect our freedom which you want to give away to an organisation that is non elected . that can overrule our parliament can spend millions each year because they can’t make up their mind which of the two parliaments they want

to be in , most of the countries in the EU can’t cope and are asking for financial help, the businesses that that say stay. Have vested interest like the the large gentlemans farmers that have so many acres that it can collect the subsidies for wind and solar as well as other pay offs, the small farmers want to leave because of the absurd amount of red tape sent by the EU who could not run a business.

When this country was on its own it ruled the world now we are the dump for those, who have always been against us, and as for we have remained at piece. Please go out and buy a paper.

Do not let the politicians who would sell us out talk you out of our freedom and democracy, and the ability to make our own laws take a walk around a war cemetery, make sure they did not give their lives in vain..

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invsb

Jun 21, 2016 at 17:07

Gil - they do censuses. So we do know close enough how many people there are here. Sorted.

Stop and think for a minute why NHS staff, scientists and management support Remain, whereas brexit is supported by extreme right-wing groups. Are you saying NHS staff don't care for the NHS? Over 100,000 staff in the NHS and social care are from other EU states - the NHS would collapse without their support.

Wars were fought to bring peace to Europe. Brexit would put up barriers and decrease our security. Brexit is putting the achievements at risk.

Between 1950 and 1973, the year that Britain joined the EU, our economy was the slowest growing in Europe and the G7 countries. Since 1973, we are the fastest growing – better than Germany, France and the US - and we have the highest ever rate of employment. Since the single market began in 1993, our GDP is up 62% in real terms compared to 48% in Switzerland and 35% in Germany.

We have freedom, security, democracy and influence in the EU. A strong economy and funding for the NHS. Opportunities for us and our children. Don't throw it away.

Vote Remain.

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Gil

Jun 21, 2016 at 18:31

If your calculation of 27p per person per day is correct, according to the UK population currently ( 65,111,000) that means that we are paying the EU 6,416,689,050 per annum.

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Gil

Jun 21, 2016 at 18:32

.....and now I know you are a politician because you never answer a question.

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invsb

Jun 21, 2016 at 18:58

That's about right Gil. But that's before all the benefits. The CBI has calculated we get £9 back for every £1 we put in from free trade, science, research etc. A very good deal.

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invsb

Jun 21, 2016 at 18:58

Britain doesn't quit. Vote Remain.

'I have travelled all over the world and have noticed, so often, how many of the most vulnerable people look to the UK for character and leadership, as if we are like beacons of good manners and fortitude. Our country’s values and contribution are respected across Europe and beyond; the UK is a trusted friend to so many nations. Those things can get lost in the maze of headlines. At such a time for the UK to retreat, run and cut ourselves loose from Europe, when there are so many challenges on our doorstep, to me just doesn't feel either courageous or kind. Europe has many flaws, but I also believe the way to help resolve many of those tough issues is from within. History has taught us that together we achieve more. I guess I believe that to help make the future of the world a better place then that future has to be about partnership. As a taxi driver said to me in Paris recently, we really need you, the UK. Don't desert us when times are tough, stand with us like you always have. That rang true. I have never been a good quitter and I am so proud of the UK and our values: tolerance, kindness, respect, courage and resilience. This is why I want us to stay together and Remain in Europe.' Bear Grylls.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 21, 2016 at 22:22

Census is only as good as the way it is acquired. Many believe the Population is close to 70million now.

Relying on an data which is collected in a very inefficient way, is never wise.

It is interesting that the number NI numbers issued are greater than the figure published. Maybe someone has something too hide!!

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invsb

Jun 21, 2016 at 22:34

Why didn't you say the population ws 200 million or 5 million or any other number off the top of your head? Just as worthwhile. Or why don't you go and count them? :-)

That's been explained cyni...google it.

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Cynical Investor2

Jun 21, 2016 at 23:13

Invsb, read my words.

You rely on a census taken every 10 years and which is in accurate.

In accurate because it misses people off the count. I know!!

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