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Recession looms as UK economy contracts
GDP fell 0.2% in the last quarter of 2011, drawing the UK closer to a double-dip recession.
Markets
The UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the last three months of 2011, increasing the likelihood of a return to full-blown recession and further denting already weak confidence.
In 2011 as a whole gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.9%, official figures showed today. The quarterly decline, which was worse than expected, was driven by a decline in manufacturing, while activity in the crucial services sector was flat, the Office for National Statistics reported.
The downbeat figure comes amid growing warnings over the strength of both the UK and global economy. Economists responded to the figure, the first quarterly contraction since the final quarter of 2010, with a warning that a technical recession was likely to be confirmed by another negative number for the first quarter of 2012.
Rising unemployment, still above-target inflation, low wage growth and government cut-backs are all stymying economic growth. Consumer and business confidence has been weak amid domestic fears and concerns that the eurozone crisis remains unsolved.
Bank of England governor Mervyn King last night warned that the ‘path of recovery is likely to be arduous, long and uneven’. On the same day, official figures revealed that the UK national debt had hit a headline-grabbing £1 trillion, though the same figures showed that chancellor George Osborne was on track to beat the government’s full-year deficit target.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirmed that it had cut its growth outlook for Britain in 2012 from 1.6% to just 0.6%. This is lower than the UK's latest official forecast of 0.7%.
More QE... but don't despair
In a speech last night King paved the way for more quantitative easing (QE), the Bank's asset-buying economic stimulus programme. The Bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to vote to add further billions to the stock of purchases when they meet next month, helped by expectations that inflation will continue to fall, eventually dropping below the 2% target.
Minutes from the committee's January meeting, also published today, contained warnings that high inflation could be more persistent than expected. They showed that MPC members were unanimous in keeping interest rates at their record low of 0.5%.
Amid the growing warnings of doom, King did, however, try to boost consumer morale when he spoke last night: ‘There is no reason to despair. All crises come to an end, and businesses will find ways to trade with each other and meet the needs of consumers whatever the transitional problems posed by deleveraging.
‘Helped by the right policy actions, the UK and world economies can and will recover. And when they do so, they will be on a more sustainable footing than at any point in the past 15 years.’
Peril in the world economy
In its global growth forecasts, the IMF warned that the eurozone crisis, which it called ‘the epicentre of the danger’, had entered a ‘perilous new phase’ towards the end of last year.
Downgrading growth forecasts for both the developed and emerging world, Olivier Blanchard, the IMF’s chief economist, said: ‘Given the depth of the 2009 recession, these growth rates are too sluggish to make a major dent in very high unemployment.’
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9 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Redundant (Old Timer?)
Jan 25, 2012 at 12:36
"This is, however, the first reading of fourth-quarter GDP, and the figures are always prone to significant revision" - yes but usually the revision is only + or - 1%!
report thisChris B (Slough UK)
Jan 25, 2012 at 12:59
More QE, more QE, more QE, but nothing gets better and the people are getting poorer and poorer. Just how many Billions is Mervyn King going to be allowed to steal from the people of this country?
When did it become the case that the Bank of England can just print and print as much money as they want, with no say by the people of this country? Yet still no money goes to businesses, what a crock of lies it all is. If I started printing my own money they would call it counterfeiting. The bank/government fraud continues apace. Add another 100 Billion Y/N hit return to confirm!
It's never enough. Stimulus my asp. Nothing but lies lies lies.
report thisRyan McC
Jan 25, 2012 at 14:15
Chris B...people are so far away from reality due to the deliberate lack of education. Sometimes i wonder is it too late to do anything about this now. Most people don't understand economics, politics or anything else that they should essentially be aware of. For me, observing the people is like watching a universal experiment whereby the people are conditioned animals, responding to stimuli e.g. working for paper 'money' which they believe is valuable. If you look at everything from the core, you will see that paper money is nothing more than a means of controlling people, just like religion and the law - all paper based and all means of controlling people. If you observe people very closely, you will see that their decisions are nonsensical, are based without adequate evidence and defy logic/reality. It's very sad to watch the world this way!
report thissteven fieldfare
Jan 25, 2012 at 15:10
Instead of pumping out funny money, I don't understand why the Government doesn't go for short term easing in Defence spending (cuts have probably gone too far anyway). Growth through Defence spending is known historically to work providing investment is largely inward.
Defence led growth would be afforded by gradually raising expenditure to say 3.6% of GDP (still below the sustained Cold War level). Judicious clawbacks from loss of spending priority in other areas could be achieved through careful focus and leverage. As examples:
Natural orientation towards young employment would help tackle youth unemployment and provide off sets through benefits savings.
Cost of military technical training programmes could be partly offset through reduced need for work and subsidised apprentice programmes.
Judicious equipmnt demands could restore impetus to high tech manufacturing.
Restore fully capable Defence Medical Services which could provide training bank for NHS, as well as provide civilian services to meet contingency crises in NHS; DMS would also provide focus in growing need for veteran services.
Expanded engineering capabilities could be used in National infrastructure projects, as part of their continuation training a la US Corps of Engineers.
And above all, eventual outflow of a motivated, skilled and disciplined work force may finally address uK' persistent problems with poor productivity.
report thisGagah
Jan 25, 2012 at 15:24
Usual doom and gloom - I despair !
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jan 25, 2012 at 15:28
The uk has been in recession for the last two years .unemployed people struggling to live with rising prices .food bills going up on a daily basis goverment cuts that effect everyone .highstreet shops closed. bank closures .popualations that have voted for failure .lack of forward planning by goverments .politicions promises that have proved to be shallow .importing from countries that are greedy that are always wanting more and more .not enough direction for producing more jobs .the sold of nationlized companies would have been a big help in employment .GONE GONE GONE .
report thissnoekie
Jan 25, 2012 at 19:03
No more QE, King and Osborne have already destroyed too much wealth. All of this down to Bliar, Brown, Balls Cooper and the Sillibands et al. How about a little integrity for a change, and reward the just, the savers and charge a decent rate of interest which will reward many more than, 8 times more than the borrowers.
More money will start circulating and thereby stimulate the economy when many will spend the increased income they receive.
The recession, sad to say was inevitable because of the profligacy of a few who cannot repay what they have borrowed, egged on by those who were rewarded, initially, for lending that was clearly dodgy. Make them repay their rewards/remuneration for their negligence as a lesson for the future.
report thisan elder one
Jan 25, 2012 at 19:40
Sorry chaps, you've all ballsed it up borrowing more than you could repay, imagining you could grow your apparent personal wealth at a rate faster than natural and will have to run around in short trousers for a bit. Admittedly the lenders have encouraged you poor dears in this for their own ends, and Brown and Balls provided the encouragement of their crass example.
report thisan elder one
Jan 25, 2012 at 20:01
We are now possessed of an irony in that it is deemed needful that gdp growth is got going again by having people buy things; what with? they ask, more borrowing? No, exports is the answer if there is still a market out there; if only we had enough to export!
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