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Safe havens: what's so special about the yen and Swiss franc?
Both the Japanese and Swiss currencies have soared, much to the annoyance of these countries, as investors have sought a refuge amid global uncertainty.
Markets
‘Absurd’ is how the Swiss National Bank (SNB) president on Thursday branded the surge by the Swiss franc; his Japanese counterpart warned a day earlier that the yen’s strength posed a threat to Japan’s economy.
Both Philipp Hildebrand and Masaaki Shirakawa, the central bank chiefs, have taken drastic action to curb the recent rises of their respective currencies: the SNB cut interest rates to zero, while the Japanese authorities engaged in unilateral FX intervention.
But the dollar remains close to its all-time low versus the Swiss franc of $0.763, after slumping 9% in the past month.
The greenback has, however, clawed back some of its recent losses against the yen, rising from a low of ¥76.96 on Thursday to close at ¥79.06 after the Bank of Japan intervened in the currency markets for the third time this year. Still, the dollar lost some of its gains on Friday, shedding 0.8% to ¥78.46.
The losses came as investors flocked to the Swiss and Japanese currencies, seeking ‘safe havens’ for their cash as markets reeled amid fears over sovereign debt and economic growth.
This is not a short-term trend either. In the past year the Swiss franc has soared 35% versus the dollar, while the yen has gained 9% versus the world's leading currency.
Chris Towner, director at HiFX, the currency dealer, said Japan and Switzerland’s trade surpluses as big exporters was a key reason for the strength of their currencies. ‘The Japanese are well known basically for having a high savings rate, and therefore are seen less vulnerable in a credit crisis because they have enough cash,’ he added.
Towner said that even though the Swiss franc was arguably in ‘deeply overvalued territory,’ Switzerland is a stable country with solid economic performance.
He pointed out that buying Swiss francs was ‘like a proxy trade to Germany,’ the eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
This was because ‘you don’t really want to buy the euro, because in the euro you’ve got to involve Spain and Italy,’ Towner continued, referring to the two eurozone nations whose soaring borrowing costs have stoked fears that they, too, may be forced to seek bailouts.
Yet he said in time, the yen’s status as a safe haven was likely to be questioned, due to Japan’s massive debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 200% – the highest in the developed world.
‘Insatiable appetite’
Meanwhile, Kit Juckes, strategist at Société Générale, believes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has more hope of stopping its currency from appreciating in the near term.
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13 comments so far. Why not have your say?
Terminator
Aug 05, 2011 at 15:38
Once again we see the fallout from the UKs tragic fake property boom of 1997 - 2003 when prices rose 350% on 'hot air' from Mr Blair s equally tragic government. There is so much fake money floating around from this it has created a tsunami-sized F+++ Up and an enormous divide between the newly wealthy (last 15 years) and the perpetually poor. Until this issue addressed (find who printed the money and get it back) the UK economy is going nowhere.
report thisRichard Spira
Aug 05, 2011 at 15:43
"... the yen’s status as a safe haven was likely to be questioned, due to Japan’s massive debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 200% – the highest in the West."
Er ... thought Japan was more in an Easterly sort of location?
report thisJonathan
Aug 05, 2011 at 15:48
It's a bit late now the markets moving up again.
report thisTerminator
Aug 05, 2011 at 17:43
@Jonathan - The markets may move wherever they want, it does not change the underlying problem that billions in fake money was printed during 1997 -2003 via property values, and until this issue is addressed you will continue to see massive imbalance in the economy.
report thisTerminator
Aug 05, 2011 at 18:01
Absolutely huge problems caused by Blair s comedy government and their fraudulent policies, ordinary people got taken to the cleaners on an epic scale in the property values scam. Probably the biggest financial travesty of the 20th century In real terms their £ is worthless, while the fat cats sit on huge piles of funny money. Its time Tony Blair s government and those who assisted them were brought to book but, hold on, that wont happen because the people responsible for that actually have all the funny money ! You couldn't make it up !
report thisPertan
Aug 06, 2011 at 09:54
Seeking a safe heaven in the yen seems like committing harikiri (suicide). Deposits pay no interest, investing the acquired yen in japanese equities doesn't seem wise since its export driven economy is in the doldrums. Infact the japanese government is intervening in the market to put a break on the yen's value. The japanese consumer hasn't been spending and the economy has been in a deflationary mode for years. The only reason the government is still able to finance its huge deficit is due to the high savings rate of the population who buy up the government debt. It is a brave person indeed who steps in the yen, and yet I have to admit that leaving your savings in the currency of bankrupt nations (The US has just lost its triple A credit rating) makes no sense either. Who dares to buy gold at this level with no income returns? Safe alternatives are far and few between.
report thisTarius
Aug 06, 2011 at 10:20
Richard: You're right but the report refers to '...the developed world'.
report thisCynic too
Aug 06, 2011 at 13:38
Time for us in the West to revolt 'en masse' in the streets, bring out the guillotines and punish those responsible by removing their heads.... if only!
report thissnoekie
Aug 06, 2011 at 17:00
Terminator, yes Bliar was in charge, notionally. The real power was Brown?Balls, which they grossly abused-they held the purse strings, he has has says!
Japan is also in desperate trouble, but not to 'gaijins', but to their people. The Japaneses Govt owes trillions to their citizens, which they cannot repay without bankruptcy/a credit arrangement, or a chapter 11 in US parlance. Yen, wrong haven.
Cynic, as you say if only, in the UK that would mean most of the Zanulibebore MPs, starting with Bliar/Brown/Balls, Mrs Balls and not forgetting the expense cheats of all parties and those those allowed them to escape justice, nearly all the shadow cabinet, the govt front bench, most of their support and their law officers.
A new broom is required, to sweep away the dirt, but not pointless revolution.......
report thisTaff Trader
Aug 07, 2011 at 11:09
Balls has got the termerity to question Osbourne for taking a holiday at 'this time of deep financial trouble.' Some balls huh, from a man who created this mess with Brown & Blair and which was sent from someone who is currently on holiday in Spain!
Stick to it Vince show those snake oil salesmen how to resolve the problem then get the bankers balls on the block
report thisJonathan
Aug 08, 2011 at 11:50
@Terminator - Actually the markets are moving down again. When you say "fake money" I'm assuming you mean the money the central banks create out of "thin air" with monetary policies? How else would we get inflation if it wasn't for this though?
report thisPertan
Aug 08, 2011 at 12:56
Cynic two writes
"Time for us in the West to revolt 'en masse' in the streets, bring out the guillotines and punish those responsible by removing their heads.... if only! "
I thought its already started in a certain way in Tottenham, Walthamstow, Brixton, Greece, Spain etc. The death of the youth was just a catalyst. Politicians call it opportunistic gangs of thugs, I call it the symptoms of closing youth programmes and centers, poverty, unemployment and loss of hope. This is here to stay for a while as State and Local Authority spending cuts persist in order to balance budgets and reduce debt. This will also likely bring on a new recession and the Government's hands will be tied in trying to revive the economy through stimulus programmes. Its looking bleak I'm afraid, not only for the UK but for the global economy.Some nations such as the US may even resort to protectionism in order to save its industries and jobs. The list goes one but one must keep up hope.
report thisTerminator
Aug 09, 2011 at 01:57
@Jonathan The 'fake money' and the period that I am referring to is between 1997 - 2003 into which I have done substantial and empirical research.
During this period property prices rose across the board an absolutely mind blowing 350%. THIS FIGURE IS SIMPLY BEYOND BELIEF BUT TRUE !
What took place then bears no resemblance to traditional 'old style' property investment as the rule book was thrown away.
A property which was valued at £50,000 in 97 was worth around £200,000 in 2003, likewise with much larger properties the figures were proportionally (and far more dangerously) much larger. This was against a backdrop of unremarkable economic activity otherwise (for eg millions of jobs were not created , nor did typical earnings increase in any significant way.) On the contrary, it was all achieved during a period of stagnation in pretty much every industry except the TALKING UP OF PROPERTY PRICES and subsequent speculation thereof. Put simply, there was no reason for these prices to go up at all let alone to the level they did, other than A LOT OF PEOPLE WANTED THEM TO It became the sole 'income' of millions.
People were buying without getting anywhere near the front door, using money they didn't really have, (thanks to the banks) selling 6 months later and trousering £100,000 tax free (at the low end) ! They then repeated the whole thing again and in many cases had a number on the go simultaneously. Millionaires were 'created over a 2-3 year period. People who in many cases had no job and no money (foreign investor help) conjured up hundreds of thousands to millions in a couple of years, We now have a situation whereby people are sitting on billions in freshly printed money ! This is the ONLY way to describe what took place. PRINTING MONEY. A blind man can see this. Property prices thanks to this are TELEPHONE NUMBERS to most people. The government that allowed this to happen is Mr Blair s administration. It was counterfeiting on an epic scale and has changed the course of at least the next 2 decades.The divide now between the newly super-rich and the permanently poor is simply too large to contemplate. And it is because of the money printing via property scam promoted by the Blair government. This is the fake money to which I refer.
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