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Taking AIM at small company pricing

Colin McLean, managing director of SVM Asset Management, shares his views on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM).

 
Taking AIM at small company pricing

Funds full of AIM stocks have at times delighted investors. Their time in the sun is usually when credit eases and the economy picks up. From the lows of 2003, the AIM Index more than doubled in just three years.

And, after the end of the last bear market in March 2009, the sector repeated this performance in less than two years. Yet each recovery failed to match previous highs, and the sector is now down 30% from its 2011 peak.

Recent performance has been twice as bad as the FTSE Smaller Companies Index, suggesting some specific AIM problems. Behavioural finance points to what might lie ahead for the troubled market, as emotion gives way to reason.

Funding issues

The key issue is funding as credit tightens. The adverse impact on the economy of bank deleveraging (paying back debt) is now clear. Despite pressure from politicians to lend, banks need to improve their own capital adequacy, and have every incentive to call in loans from smaller companies.

It seems this retrenchment is affecting listed companies, too. And equity fundraising is far from the heady days of 2009, when institutions flocked to support rights issues.

This is a hostile environment for any business that needs money. Unfortunately, many AIM businesses are still at an early stage of development, and have assumed funding would come along if sales or other growth targets were met.

The decision by Nautical Petroleum (NPE.L) to sell out before it has completed its exploration and development points to the frustration that some companies now feel. Indeed, good AIM businesses may attract bids from better financed rivals. But this might not be enough to bail out portfolios with lots of these stocks.

One major constituent of the AIM Index is mining. Gold miners have confounded investors as the gap between share price performance and the metal itself widens.

Miners talk glibly about mining cash costs, but these estimates rarely include all the cash involved. Project start-up costs, financing costs, aborted projects and the real current cost of energy are rarely fully captured in these hypothetical cost estimates.

The reality that many mines have marginal economics even at current gold prices is only evident when money runs out. Investors now have no appetite for injecting more money, unless revenue is imminent.

Earlier star performers

Many of the funds with exposure to AIM were star performers from early 2009, albeit with some fading in recent months. Yet underlying liquidity in some of these stocks is rapidly draining away.

So where are the marginal buyers for AIM shares? Screens show stock prices that are often meaningless. For some AIM shares, market prices point to levels at which dealing is not actually taking place. Where managers need to fund redemptions or share buy-backs, they will need to achieve effective price discovery, possibly at much lower levels.

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4 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Chris Clark

Aug 01, 2012 at 08:02

I've got one July client who folded sticks and merged with another company because they could not raise bank finance for expansion under any circumstances, and a second July client who folded sticks because their bank called in an overdraft on rising revenue.

There's almost an attitude in London SME land not to have a bank in your financing because it is like having an unexploded bomb at the heart of your business.

In the meantime, I'm down 2 clients and that hurt.

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Geoff James2

Aug 01, 2012 at 08:25

Hi Chris Clark

I read similar stories in the loan proposals from Thincats clients. Thincats seem to have a nice niche providing loans to companies that are running away (forced or otherwise) from banks.

Regards,

Geoff

(I need to declare in interest as I do lend money via Thincats- nothing major)

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Chris Clark

Aug 01, 2012 at 08:37

Thanks for this Geoff.

Now you've said that, I'm going to put together a small portfolio of P2P lenders and one private invoice factoring company and advertise their presence in my networking activity.

Chris

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Chris Clark

Aug 01, 2012 at 09:19

And keeping a promise, here they are...

Working Capital Partners

http://www.workingcapitalpartners.co.uk/

Thincats - Business Loans Without Banks

http://www.thincats.com/

Zopa

http://www.Zopa.com

Funding Circle

http://www.fundingcircle.com

RateSetter

http://www.ratesetter.com

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