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The Accumulator: oil's rally sparks Trump anger

Oil has been on a tear, rallying nearly 16% over the last month, sparking an angry response from US president Donald Trump.

 
The Accumulator: oil's rally sparks Trump anger
 

This week saw oil rally build further momentum, with the price of Brent crude breaking through the $74 mark for the first time since 2014 yesterday.

Oil is now up 5.5% over week to yesterday, and 15.9% over the rolling month, as our exclusive Accumulator data table shows.

Since the start of the year, the price of oil is up 7.2%, and barring Brazilian stocks, is the only major global asset to have delivered a positive return in 2018.

Enter US president Donald Trump, who has knocked the rally, sending crude back towards the $73 mark with his most recent tweet.

'Looks like Opec is at it again,' he said. 'With record amounts of oil all over the place, including the fully-loaded ships at sea, oil prices are artificially very high! No good and will not be accepted!'

Opec members have denied oil prices are being artificially inflated. But there's no doubt of the impact of the cartel of oil-producing nations' agreement to cut output, struck in September 2016. With the oil price already having rallied from a low of less than $28 a barrel at the beginning of 2016, to around the $50 mark, that helped stabilise the market.

As the high inventories which have weighed on the market for the last few years began to decline, oil started to chart its course towards the $70 mark from last summer. 

Richard Robinson, manager of the Ashburton Global Energy fund, is among those who thinks the rally has further to run.

'We are rapidly transitioning from a market drowning in oil - oversupplied and excess stored oil - to a new reality of undersupply and low storage levels,' he said.

He said this 'double hit' could propel the oil price another 15% higher over the course of the rest of the year.

'The market is facing heightened risk to current supply, as a result of the lack of spend and increasing political volatility in oil-producing nations,' he said.

'The seed is being sown for a structurally higher oil price, combined with heightened probability of risk premium.'

You can access the Accumulator data table here.

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