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The Expert View: Whitbread, Xaar & Ashtead

A roundup of the best analyst comments on shares, including STV Group and SDL.

by Michelle McGagh on Jun 18, 2014 at 05:01

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Key stats
Market capitalisation£7,734m
No. of shares out181m
No. of shares floating177m
No. of common shareholdersnot stated
No. of employees36447
Trading volume (10 day avg.)0m
Turnover£2,294m
Profit before tax£328m
Earnings per share181.06p
Cashflow per share262.78p
Cash per share22.82p

*Correct as at 17 Jun 2014

Investec upgrades Whitbread after first quarter growth

Whitbread (WTB), owner of Costa Coffee and Premier Inn, has been removed from Investec’s ‘sell’ list following outperformance in its first quarter results.

Analyst James Hollins upgraded the stock from ‘sell’ to ‘hold’ and retained a target price of £41.00, after the group reported like-for-like sales of 6.9% and ‘marginal outperformance across all divisions’. The shares closed 2.9% higher at £42.90.

‘We are taking the opportunity to review forecasts – full-year 2015 and full-year 2016 earnings per share move c.2% and c.3% ahead of consensus respectively – and move our recommendation from “sell” to “hold”,’ said Hollins. ‘A premium rating and key risks around incremental hotel returns dilution preclude a more positive stance, although the strength of trading across its UK brands leads up to remove Whitbread from our ‘sell’ list.’

Key stats
Market capitalisation£429m
No. of shares out76m
No. of shares floating73m
No. of common shareholdersnot stated
No. of employees692
Trading volume (10 day avg.)0m
Turnover£137m
Profit before tax£32m
Earnings per share41.57p
Cashflow per share52.40p
Cash per share70.47p

*Correct as at 17 Jun 2014

Profits warning cracks Xaar shares

Numis has downgraded commercial inkjet printer maker Xaar (XAR) after stating its ceramic tile printing market will negatively affect revenue.

Numis analyst Scott Cagehin downgraded his rating from ‘buy’ to ‘hold’ but maintained a target price of 800p. Shares in the company slumped 24% yesterday to 563p.

Cagehin was unimpressed by a trading update that showed pricing pressure in the ceramic tile market ‘will have a negative impact on revenue expectations and therefore profits’.‘We have downgraded our forecasts by 12% to reflect this,’ he said. ‘In the short-term we anticipate the potential for earnings risk given second half weighting expectation and some uncertainty on how demand will stability.’

Although the short-term prospects are under pressure, Cagehin said ‘long-term potential for enhanced earnings growth is apparent, driven by new product introductions and the potential for markets to convert to digital printing’.

Key stats
Market capitalisation£4,193m
No. of shares out503m
No. of shares floating486m
No. of common shareholdersnot stated
No. of employees9806
Trading volume (10 day avg.)2m
Turnover£1,362m
Profit before tax£139m
Earnings per share27.34p
Cashflow per share73.60p
Cash per share4.03p

*Correct as at 17 Jun 2014

Liberum likes Ashtead but currency fears hit shares

Full-year figures from equipment rental company Ashtead (AHT) upset markets but analysts were keen to play up the stock.

Liberum analyst David Brockton reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £10.30. However, shares dropped 6% to 832p to make Ashtead the biggest FTSE faller following concerns about the impact a strong pound will have on its dollar earnings.

This did not put off Brockton, although he noted ‘FX headwind may temper the reported rate of growth through full year 2015’.

‘Ashtead’s full-year figures have again beaten our forecasts by 3% at earnings per share and 8% at dividend per share,’ he said. ‘Underlying growth momentum was sustained through Q4 with 19% revenue growth.’

He added that ‘the business still shows no sign of slowing down’ and ‘as recovery continues, Ashtead’s financing structure and younger fleet base provides a competitive advantage’.

Key stats
Market capitalisation£140m
No. of shares out39m
No. of shares floating31m
No. of common shareholdersnot stated
No. of employees372
Trading volume (10 day avg.)0m
Turnover£112m
Profit before tax£12m
Earnings per share31.20p
Cashflow per share36.57p
Cash per share22.54p

*Correct as at 17 Jun 2014

Peel Hunt says STV trading at ‘unwarranted’ discount

Scottish broadcaster STV (STVG) trades at an ‘unwarranted’ discount to its peers, leading Peel Hunt to increase its target price.

Analyst Malcom Morgan retained a ‘buy’ rating and revised the target price up from 400p to 470p. The shares gained 11.25p or 3.1% to 371p.

‘STV Group currently trades at a 28-36% discount to ITV and UTV,’ he said. ‘Given the robust financing, the strong digital presence and mid-teens earnings growth, we believe this discount is unwarranted. Moreover, we also highlight the potential earning enhancement that could come from the development of the digital suite and production business.

‘With the share readmitted to the FTSE All Share, we revise our target price to 470p, which still represents a 10% discount to its two peers.’

Morgan noted a new banking facility provided both a lower margin and ‘less onerous covenants’.

Key stats
Market capitalisation£270m
No. of shares out81m
No. of shares floating78m
No. of common shareholdersnot stated
No. of employees2750
Trading volume (10 day avg.)0m
Turnover£266m
Profit before tax£-28m
Earnings per share-34.75p
Cashflow per share-19.06p
Cash per share22.64p

*Correct as at 17 Jun 2014

Panmure praises SDL for repositioning

Panmure Gordon has praised the efforts of translation software provider SDL (SDL) to reposition itself and believes it provides a long-term opportunity.

Analyst George O’Connor reiterated his ‘buy’ rating and target price of 421p on the shares, which trading up 0.7% at 332p yesterday.

‘We have long talked about SDL’s efforts to better understand the current marketplace zeitgeist and the market opportunity in customer experience management (CXM),’ said O’Connor. ‘In our view, digitally aware customers are forcing businesses to change how they interact. There is undoubted growth in this market – but the key is to drive profitable growth by better understanding and addressing the end consumer – kudos to SDL for making a stab at it.’

He added that SDL’s product has ‘matured’ over the past 12 months.

‘For us the longer run opportunity for SDL is not to simply translate “stuff” but help companies sell better,’ said O’Connor. Better CXM execution will fuel better software sales and increase group profitability ahead of current estimates.’

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  • Whitbread PLC (WTB.L)
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  • Xaar PLC (XAR.L)
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  • Ashtead Group PLC (AHT.L)
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  • STV Group PLC (STVG.L)
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  • SDL PLC (SDL.L)
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