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The Week in Investment: 'One month window' to sell your shares
Market timing guru Robin Griffiths says the bull run is nearly over, and explains why he's invested in Brazil, India and gold. Plus: Are politicians being honest about where they need to make cuts?
Market timing guru Robin Griffiths says the bull run is nearly over, and explains why he's invested in Brazil, India and gold. Plus: Are politicians being honest about where they need to make cuts?
'One month window'
Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital Management, has a track record of successfully predicting market movements by following the theories of Austrian school economist Joseph Schumpeter.
According to him, the 4- and 10-year cycles that govern markets are in a 'negative phase' and markets will peak very soon. The next big buying opportunity, meanwhile, will come around July 2011.
Griffiths regards another downturn in the US as 'inevitable', saying credit bubbles always result in double dip depressions. He invests his own money in Brazil, India and gold.
Where to cut?
At the British Chambers of Commerce annual conference, Ken Clarke and Peter Mandelson laid out how their governments would cut the budget deficit, but BCC chief economist David Kern says both sides lack 'credibility'.
Politicians must abandon the pretense that certain areas - notably health - can be spared, and be honest with the electorate that pain will be felt across the board, Kern says.
10 comments so far. Why not have your say?
ROGER
Mar 19, 2010 at 15:12
I must admit was contemplating going into cash before the election . I wonder if any other "experts" share his view ?
report thisAndy
Mar 19, 2010 at 15:59
I hope he's right becasue I've had my pension invested in China, Gold and latin amerca for the past 3 years and grown it by 110% in that time
report thisJohn R - Edinburgh
Mar 19, 2010 at 16:28
Roger ...
I went 50% cash this week. I just decided that a pull-back is due short-term and a correction later this year.
report thisKeith
Mar 19, 2010 at 16:47
Cash sounds ok but what about bank risk?
Do you spread you cash over several banks to have it all protected in case of another crisis?
I agree with Latin America , but what about Canada and Australia ?
report thisJeremy Bosk
Mar 19, 2010 at 17:31
Blue Sky Asset Management has just published research that show those who go into cash for 12 months lose the crucial first months of recovery when most gains occur. Add on current low deposit rates and the transaction costs and going liquid rarely pays.
Far better to buy cheap portfolio insurance with either structured products or out of the money put covered warrants.
report thisLaura Sommer
Mar 19, 2010 at 21:10
Sounds like an established Emerging Markets fund might not be a bad punt, especially if drip-fed ;)...
Also just drip feeding in a generalist, global growth fund such as Bankers, Foreign & Colonial, etc...Dull, but bound to at least break even, especially longterm...or perhaps an even more defensively invested fund such as City of London which focuses on solid blue chips with *ahem* reasonably well-covered dividends. Even if capital growth is pedestrian, would have thought that reinvested dividends should compound the total return.
report thisLaura Sommer
Mar 19, 2010 at 21:12
Also believe that Woodford is correct about backing defensive companies though his god-like status puts me off, somewhat :/
report thisandrew buckley
Mar 20, 2010 at 09:08
Laura
What about strategic asset funds - Artemis and Jupiter currently being promoted by HL Will go up whether the marked goes up or down.
report thiskenny-boy
Mar 20, 2010 at 14:00
A bric sounds a good idea at the moment i have had one for 12 months now, also Latinamerica and Australia sounds a good bet.
report thisAnonymous 1 needed this 'off the record'
Jul 21, 2010 at 14:32
I think Allianz BRIC Stars + BlackRock G&G + First State Global Emerging Market Leaders would be a good drip fed stratergy at the moment
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