Twitter icon Email alerts icon Latest News RSS icon Magazine icon Stay connected:

View the article online at http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/article/a744387

AAA-rated Hideo Shiozumi: Japan isn’t even halfway through its bull market

by Robert St George on Apr 03, 2014 at 07:20

AAA-rated Hideo Shiozumi: Japan isn’t even halfway through its bull market

Hideo Shiozumi, the Citywire AAA-rated manager of the £248 million Legg Mason Japan Equity fund, has claimed that Japan is only in the second year of a four-year bull market.

Japan’s Topix index surged more than 50% in yen terms last year, which Shiozumi (pictured) attributed to the first two ‘arrows’ of Abenomics – fiscal stimulus and monetary easing.

‘The first two arrows have already produced good results,’ Shiozumi said. ‘That’s why last year the market was up sharply.’

However, Shiozumi argued that the next arrow of structural reforms would not yield such instant results.

‘I think the third arrow of growth based on structural reforms could take about two to three years. Of course, structural reforms will have to be accompanied by some short-term pain.’

Shiozumi therefore estimated that Japanese equities would return 10-15% this year and next, which he regarded as a somewhat conservative prediction.

‘If during the second half of this year the economy is not so adversely affected by the consumption tax increase and economic growth is higher than people are expecting, then of course the market could become much stronger than I am expecting.’

Shiozumi said the structural reforms would begin to pay off in 2016, which he suggested could be an even better year for Japanese equities than 2013.

‘In 2016, the fourth year of Abenomics, we should see more clear signs of Abenomics working successfully.’ As indicators pf success, Shiozumi said he was looking for inflation to exceed 2% and a nominal GDP growth rate of more than 3%.

‘So I think we could see an even stronger market in 2016, stronger than last year.'

Sign in / register to view full article on one page

leave a comment

Please sign in here or register here to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

News sponsored by:

Sponsored Video: Bringing it all back home


As the UK coalition government strives to rebalance the national economy, so called 'reshoring' looks set to play an increasingly important role in economic recovery.

Today's top headlines

Investing for income in a changing environment


With talk on interest rates on the horizon, our latest roundtable debate covers income investing against a changing backdrop

More about this:

Look up the funds

  • Legg Mason Japan Equity A
    Register or Sign in to receive email alerts for items in your favourites whenever we write about them
  • Legg Mason Japan Equity A
    Register or Sign in to receive email alerts for items in your favourites whenever we write about them

Look up the fund managers

  • Hideo Shiozumi
    Register or Sign in to receive email alerts for items in your favourites whenever we write about them

More from us

Archive

On the road

Click here to find out more from the Audience Development team.

Sorry, this link is not
quite ready yet