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Brewin's Guy Foster slaps 'outperform' rating on England football team

by Dylan Lobo on Jun 12, 2014 at 12:21


'As ever we look for variant perception in identifying England's scope to outperform. Other forecasters are atypically downbeat about those prospects which we see as a cyclical anomaly rather than a structural issue. England are rated 10th by the official ranking agency down from 8th.

'The team have long suffered from a flattering official ranking which has pushed expectations too high. Investors would claim not to be swayed by official rankings but their sensitivity remains high.

'In the market England's price has declined from a nosebleed-inducing 6-1 in 2010 to a pragmatic 28-1 in 2014.'

Operational performance

'Headline performance has been underwhelming but as ever the true story is more nuanced. England's team has been reconditioned with the effective retirement or mothballing of some facilities.

'Maintenance issues on Rooney's unreliable groin continue to concern investors who we feel aren't prepared to value the pipeline of new facilities such as Cahill, Wilshere, Lallana and Sturridge fairly.

'England is also expected to be a beneficiary of (Raheem) Sterling's strength. England has the 3rd highest GPC ratio (goals per cap) in the competition. The team's average age of 26.1 is lower than that of investor favourites Brazil and Spain (both 27.8) and Argentina (28.5).'

Results about five goals ahead of expectations

'England’s strength lies in its diversity. Recent investor days indicate that all 23 of England’s units are at maximum production, and by combining them all, significant synergies can be produced and targets met.'  

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