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View the article online at http://citywire.co.uk/wealth-manager/article/a735215

Bulls versus bears: will fortune favour the brave?

by Eleanor Lawrie on Feb 19, 2014 at 11:56

Last month, Diversity had a cash weighting of around 30.6%, up from 25.5% at the end of last year.

‘If I get caught underperforming in a market that looks expensive, I will feel I have let my investors down,’ Brookes told Wealth Manager in a recent interview.

Risk-on environment

He argues that despite a recent softening, much of the economic data available remains positive, which has led to misplaced risk appetite.

‘One of the problems investors have is that data is supportive of a risk-on environment. It’s supportive for high yield, emerging market currency and debt, but at the moment those assets are not going to perform well,’ Brookes said.

At the other end of the spectrum there are managers that are still looking to capitalise on stronger economic growth in the more unloved areas of the market.

James de Bunsen, who sits on Henderson Global Investors’ multi-manager team, said the improving macro situation has made him quietly optimistic.

‘We are cautiously constructive because valuations have gone up and there is a bit of complacency around,’ he said.

The Henderson multi-manager team has recently shifted its portfolios to a slight European overweight at the expense of the US.

‘Earnings momentum is better in Europe. We do not think the macro issues have gone away but there is a decent story at the moment,’ de Bunsen said.

He is also overweight Japan, which he thinks ‘has further to go’ as its quantitative easing programme continues.

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2 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Keith Cobby

Feb 19, 2014 at 13:44

'Markets are notoriously difficult to predict' . What would they be like if they were predictable?

Who knows where the markets are heading, I don't know , you don't know, nobody knows. My view is that they are moderately priced, not cheap and not expensive. My strategy, which I have always followed and always will, is to buy quality dividend producing long only investment trusts/companies and roll up the dividends until I need them in retirement. Occasionally adjusting for geographical allocation.

My experience since the mid 1980's is that long term performance relies on being fully invested so that you don't miss the often very short periods of price momentum. In the downturns the dividends are there to protect you.

Best advice - ignore the noise of which this article is a part of!

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r rodney

Feb 19, 2014 at 16:20

Hmmmm....that sounds like sensible advice to me, especially the fully invested criteria. Someone who has been at it since the 80's must have some experience. Keith can I join your blog.

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