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Inflation reprieve leaves forward guidance battered but intact

by Eleanor Lawrie on Jan 08, 2014 at 07:57

Inflation reprieve leaves forward guidance battered but intact

Inflation remains benign enough that the Bank of England will not be forced to change forward guidance policy at its policy meeting on Thursday, despite a steady drop in unemployment.

Following the arrival of new governor Mark Carney (pictured) last summer, the BoE announced it was introducing a form of forward guidance, giving businesses and individuals advance warning about when its financial policies will change.

The Bank reassured markets it would not consider raising the bank rate from the historically low level of 0.5% until unemployment falls to 7%, then forecast within the third quarter of 2016.

But since then the UK economy has strenthened considerably, and by the third quarter of 2013 unemployment had fallen to 7.4 per cent, the lowest level since 2009, leading to concerns that interest rates could rise as soon as this year.

In a bid to quell these fears, some argue the MPC should announce a tougher threshold for the interest rate rise, by lowering the required unemployment level. 

But Simon Ward, chief economist at Henderson, told Wealth Manager that any tweaks made to forward guidance at the Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday 'would look a bit reactive,' as the policy is so new.

'I'm a bit sceptical that they will want to move the threshold so soon after introducing it,' he says. 'Carney always saw it as a threshold. They could say that although unemployment has fallen below 7%, there is no sign of wage pressure, so we are happy to keep rates for the forseable future.'

'If I was the MPC, I would try to shift attention to the inflation picture rather than lowering the threshold.'

CPI fell to a four-year low of 2.1% in November, bringing it close to the Bank's 2% target and lessening the need to raise interest rates.

While Azad Zangana, chief European economist at Schroders, is anticipating a change to the policy, he thinks the committee will wait until the inflation report meeting in February.

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1 comment so far. Why not have your say?

Keith Cobby

Jan 08, 2014 at 12:01

" There will be no increase to base rate on my watch"

- Mark Carney

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