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Miners draw strength from China economy hopes
by Chris Marshall on Oct 18, 2012 at 08:41
Investors gave the Chinese economy the benefit of the doubt this morning, cautiously interpreting a mixed bag of data as demonstrating that the world’s second-largest economy may have troughed, helping stock markets stay firm as a two-day European leaders' summit gets under way in Brussels.
Although China’s GDP growth for the third quarter of 7.4% marks the sixth quarterly decline in year-on-year growth rates, retail sales, industrial production and investment all improved, the official stats showed.
The in-line GDP figure and other data from the National Bureau of Statistics was taken by economists as a cautious sign that the economy has now bottomed out, potentially dulling one of the market’s biggest fears – that demand from China will crash.
China’s Premier Wen Jiabao also said that China’s GDP growth has started to stabilize and show some positive changes.
Miners take solace from fading 'hard-landing' fears
In London, mining stocks responded accordingly, with Vedanta (VED.L) leading the gains, up 2.2% to 1,172p. Kazakhmys (KAZ.L) rose by 2.1% to 776%, ENRC (ENRC.L) was 1.5% higher to 357p and Anglo American (AAL.L) gained 1.4% to 1,932p. The wider FTSE 100 – which has been rallying all week – was flat at 5,905, following gains in Asia and the US overnight.
On the downside for investors, though, the Chinese economic numbers do reduce the probability of more stimulus from the Chinese authorities. ‘As the bottoming-out is largely confirmed, the chance of another interest rate cut by the year end from the People's Bank of China is probably close to zero now. Also, there is certainly no rush to announce any investment stimulus package,’ commented Yao Wei of Societe Generale.
Meanwhile, Alistair Thornton of IHS cautioned against ‘unbridled optimism’. He wrote: ‘Those fearing a hard-landing will be able to sleep a little better tonight, but those positioned for a clear recovery might be disappointed.'
Market gains were capped by uncertainty ahead of the European Council meeting in Brussels that starts today. Analysts are, however, not expecting fireworks, with European officials insisting that neither Spain’s potential bailout nor Greece’s progress will be discussed. Spain will remain in the market’s gaze, however, as it tests investor appetite with bond auctions this morning.
The euro was 0.2% lower to $1.3088, while European markets were broadly flat.
Of UK stocks, Mothercare (MTC.L) was also making gains, after its second quarter trading statement showed better than expected growth in its home UK market, while Europe dragged on overseas growth.
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- Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ.L)
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- Mothercare PLC (MTC.L)
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Aberdeen Live supplement: Fundamentals point to ongoing flows and solid returns from EMD
After a record year for inflows and market-leading performance in 2012, emerging market debt has taken a large step towards the mainstream. Our recent debate covers the outlook for the asset class this year and where opportunities can be found.