Register for full access to Citywire’s Fund Manager database, news and analysis. Registration is free and only takes a minute.

Eight commodity themes for 2014

After a tough 2013 for commodities, Deutsche Bank's Markets Research team gives its 2014 forecast for the asset class.  

1. Crude oil supply glut

[Deutsche says]:

‘Rampant US oil supply growth and upside risks to Libyan and Iranian crude oil exports imply a bearish environment for global crude oil markets next year.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

2. How to play lower oil prices

‘A growth boost from falling oil prices should sustain the improvement in European car sales and hence tighten platinum fundamentals. Falling energy costs will also pressure cost curves lower across the aluminium industry.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

3. Calling the bottom of the refining cycle

‘The expansion in Asian and Middle Eastern refinery will aggravate the current refinery capacity glut. We are therefore bearish margins.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

4. Weather and storage will dominate in driving the US natural gas market

‘The role of utility fuel switching will be less important next year with prices more a function on the vagaries of weather and storage factors.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

5. Positioning for a China rebound

‘A turn in Asian export growth and a deceleration in new fleet growth will boost freight rates while falling inventories and a positioning unwind among the investor community should boost copper.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

6. Fed tapering

‘We expect positive growth shocks in the US and Fed tapering to drive US real yields and the US dollar higher. Consequently, we expect ongoing downside risks to gold.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

7. Industrial metals

‘We stick to zinc and lead as the relative winners next year. However, we expect mean reversion strategies will eventually outperform.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

8. Farm subsidies in China

‘As the Chinese government moves away from stockpiling and toward direct farm subsidies, we expect this will discourage agricultural imports.’

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.
Citywire TV
Play Investment Pulse: the highs and lows of 2014

Investment Pulse: the highs and lows of 2014

This week's Investment Pulse looks back at some of the biggest stories of the year as well as looking forward to 2015.

Play Inside ETFs: Why the US bull-run still has legs

Inside ETFs: Why the US bull-run still has legs

Global equities suffered a sharp sell-off in the third quarter but exchange traded fund investors are continuing to back the US to outperform in 2015

Play Paul Niven: I won't rip up the Foreign & Colonial Trust history book

Paul Niven: I won't rip up the Foreign & Colonial Trust history book

The newly appointed manager of the Foreign & Colonial trust talks about his plans for UK's oldest investment company.

Your Business: Cover Star Club

Manchester wealth firm hires Coutts director for London launch

Manchester wealth firm hires Coutts director for London launch

Former Coutts director Tony Robinson has joined Chartered Wealth Management to head the company’s newly opened London office.

Wealth Manager on Twitter