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IHT breaks in firing line? Killik's 5 Budget predictions

Killik takes a look at whether there could be any bombshells in next week's Budget.

Hammond's 'moment' 

Tim Bennett, partner and head of education at Killik & Co, assesses whether we could get some big bombshells next week's Budget. 

'Although people are speculating it could be a Tory-party-saving firework display, given the reaction to the last one and the embarrassing U-turn on cost-of-care I think it is more likely to be a more conservative “don’t-freak-the-troops” affair,' Bennett says. 

'If Hammond decides (Boris-like) that this is “his moment” and he is the White Knight who will save the Tories from Brexit oblivion we could yet get much bigger Budget bombshells…'

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Hammond's 'moment' 

Tim Bennett, partner and head of education at Killik & Co, assesses whether we could get some big bombshells next week's Budget. 

'Although people are speculating it could be a Tory-party-saving firework display, given the reaction to the last one and the embarrassing U-turn on cost-of-care I think it is more likely to be a more conservative “don’t-freak-the-troops” affair,' Bennett says. 

'If Hammond decides (Boris-like) that this is “his moment” and he is the White Knight who will save the Tories from Brexit oblivion we could yet get much bigger Budget bombshells…'

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Taxes on the wealthy

'Taking from the wealthy - AIM IHT tax breaks could be in the firing line'  

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Property

'Property – agree we’ll see something on stamp duty. They could do something to help first time buyers – maybe a stamp duty holiday? – or be radical and switch burden onto sellers rather than buyers.

'Lifetime ISA has been a damp squib – might get a boost maybe in terms of contribution and subsequent permitted use of money to help property buyers. Help to Buy is likely to get a boost.' 

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Tax avoidance

'Tax avoidance by the rich  is topical and an “easy” target as a vote-winner – further restrictions on use of offshore vehicles is possible, however offshore bonds preferred tax status probably still safe for now.' 

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Pensions

'Pensions tax relief cuts for higher earners/older workers will be tempting (as it is every time) but I see as politically too risky.

'More likely annual allowance will be cut from £40,000 and tapering of contribution for higher earners may become even more aggressive.

'At a pinch he may go after the tax treatment of pensions on death which is currently generous (versus say ISAs) and not widely understood – but again there are risks here in Tory heartland…'

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Young voters

'Something for younger voters? Maybe a decrease in NI or an increase in personal allowances (problem is both could be too expensive without a big measure, such as reducing tax relief on pensions, to fund it). Student costs and/or loans would be a good area to give some ground on' 

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