Register to get unlimited access to all of Citywire’s Fund Manager database. Registration is free and only takes a minute.

JP Morgan Private Bank: seven critical graphs

Cesar Perez, chief investment strategist EMEA at JP Morgan Private Bank, highlights the information he believes conveys important messages.

With an annualised 15.23 million US vehicle sales number for January 2013, US auto sales are now back in the 15-17 million annualized historic average sales range, up from a low of 9 million in 2009. There is still plenty of underlying structural demand as the average cars life in the US is above 10 years. This together with the recovery in US housing will help support consumption growth in 2013 despite the fiscal drag.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

With an annualised 15.23 million US vehicle sales number for January 2013, US auto sales are now back in the 15-17 million annualized historic average sales range, up from a low of 9 million in 2009. There is still plenty of underlying structural demand as the average cars life in the US is above 10 years. This together with the recovery in US housing will help support consumption growth in 2013 despite the fiscal drag.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

The chart shows the extent of the jobless recovery in the US in the aftermath of the 2007 recession. It is remarkable that the absolute level of GDP is well above the previous peak while this has been achieved with 6 million less people employed. This is why the Fed is focusing on employment now. The slack in the labour market has until now been very supportive for corporate profitability, because in the current recovery cycle very low labour compensation costs are allowing for a much stronger profit cycle. We expect the U.S. economy to add somewhere between 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per months during 2013.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Draghi has addressed the funding problems of the banking sector through the LTRO and those of sovereigns in trouble with the OMT. What hasn’t been resolved yet is the nonfinancial corporate funding, where interest rates in the periphery are almost twice as high as in the core. As a consequence, businesses in the periphery are at an inherent disadvantage to their competitors in core countries. This difference has to be resolved in order for the periphery to be able to grow again.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

This is the evidence that fiscal transfers are finally occurring in the Euro area, which no longer is only a monetary union. Through the latest support package for Greece, the country’s funding costs have been reduced so far that even with a debt to GDP ratio of around 170%, its interest payments as a percentage of GDP are actually lower than those of the UK, Italy or Spain. For the programmes duration the debt sustainability of Greece is thus much better than previously expected and what one would expect when only looking at the country’s exuberant debt level.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

While yields in the fixed income universe are at record lows spreads still look quite reasonable compared to ten-year historic averages.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Active managers are having a much tougher time outperforming their benchmark when correlations are high and stock picking has a lesser impact than macro factors. As correlations have come down now, we expect active managers to have better performance over the coming years compared to the very difficult 2010-2012 period.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

Price to earnings are probably the most often used valuation multiple today, but we find that Price to book relative to ROE is a much better estimate for equity performance as can be seen by the scatter plot in the chart.

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.
Citywire TV
Play From Private Bank to Private Office: the next generation of ultra high net worth investors

From Private Bank to Private Office: the next generation of ultra high net worth investors

Citywire's Anna Dumas highlights the trend towards private and family offices.

Play Inside ETFs: how to defend against bond volatility

Inside ETFs: how to defend against bond volatility

In this latest episode we call in experts from 7IM and Markit to assess how the bond sell-off has impacted ETFs.

Play The future of wealth management according to disruptive tech expert Andrew Tarver

The future of wealth management according to disruptive tech expert Andrew Tarver

Three private office investors direct their questions about the future of wealth management, to Andrew Tarver, founder of Boldrocket and disruptive tech expert.

Your Business: Cover Star Club

Profile: Stenham's CIO on the strange persistence of hedge funds

Profile: Stenham's CIO on the strange persistence of hedge funds

Stenham Asset Management chief investment officer Kevin Arenson believes hedge funds are making a comeback

Wealth Manager on Twitter