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UBS Wealth's World Cup predictions

Here’s the top ten countries in the running to win the World Cup, according to an econometric analysis conducted by UBS Global Wealth Management.

With the World Cup fast approaching, fans and punters are in deep debate on who will triumph in football's biggest tournament. 

Well it turns out UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office may have the answer.

UBS has offered a scientific insight on next month's Cup, publishing the results of an econometric analysis of 10,000 simulations, using the same approach it employs in deciding where to place its money.

In its 28-page study, UBS highlights that successful teams are built on agility, calm and balance. 

England manager Gareth Southgate has come in for a fair share of criticism after unveiling his 23-man squad. However, UBS has said the country is capable of springing a surprise or two as it has a 'balanced team', although it notes they would have to face the mighty Brazil on route to the semi-final.  

Commenting on the report, the firm’s chief investment officer, Mark Haefele, said: ‘No matter whether they are analysing global markets or soccer tournaments, people tend to be biased towards local favourites.

‘The same quantitative discipline that the Chief Investment Office applies to investments has proven useful in successfully looking beyond a home bias in portfolios and sports events.’

And what of the hosts Russia? We highlight the teams with the best chance of lifting the Cup, according to UBS.  

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With the World Cup fast approaching, fans and punters are in deep debate on who will triumph in football's biggest tournament. 

Well it turns out UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office may have the answer.

UBS has offered a scientific insight on next month's Cup, publishing the results of an econometric analysis of 10,000 simulations, using the same approach it employs in deciding where to place its money.

In its 28-page study, UBS highlights that successful teams are built on agility, calm and balance. 

England manager Gareth Southgate has come in for a fair share of criticism after unveiling his 23-man squad. However, UBS has said the country is capable of springing a surprise or two as it has a 'balanced team', although it notes they would have to face the mighty Brazil on route to the semi-final.  

Commenting on the report, the firm’s chief investment officer, Mark Haefele, said: ‘No matter whether they are analysing global markets or soccer tournaments, people tend to be biased towards local favourites.

‘The same quantitative discipline that the Chief Investment Office applies to investments has proven useful in successfully looking beyond a home bias in portfolios and sports events.’

And what of the hosts Russia? We highlight the teams with the best chance of lifting the Cup, according to UBS.  

Leave a comment!

Please sign in or register to comment. It is free to register and only takes a minute or two.

9= Switzerland

Chance of:

Winning cup — 1.8%

Coming runner up — 5.0%

Winning group stage — 19.7%

 

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9= Uruguay

Chance of:

Winning cup — 1.8%

Coming runner up — 5.0%

Winning group stage — 42.5%

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8. Portugal

Chance of:

Winning cup — 3.1%

Coming runner up — 8.0%

Winning group stage — 25.2%

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7. Argentina

Chance of:

Winning cup — 4.9%

Coming runner up — 11.3%

Winning group stage — 54.7%

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6. Belgium

Chance of:

Winning cup — 5.3%

Coming runner up — 11.6%

Winning group stage — 38.3%

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5. France

Chance of:

Winning cup — 7.3%

Coming runner up — 16.1%

Winning group stage — 60.1%

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4. England

Chance of:

Winning cup — 8.5%

Coming runner up — 18.7%

Winning group stage — 53.7%

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3. Spain

Chance of:

Winning cup — 16.1%

Coming runner up — 28.0%

Winning group stage — 60.6%

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2. Brazil

Chance of:

Winning cup — 19.8%

Coming runner up — 31.9%

Winning group stage — 66.8%

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1. Germany

Chance of:

Winning cup — 24.0%

Coming runner up — 36.7%

Winning group stage — 68.6%

 

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Russia

Although World Cup host Russia doesn't make the top ten, here are its chances:

Winning cup — 1.6%

Coming runner up — 4.6%

Winning group stage — 41.4%

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