Roger Bootle: The Euro is unlikely to survive five years

The only concrete suggestion made by Bootle was that the Med countries could opt out of the Euro. What would be their incentive to do so? A weak basket of currencies?

It would seem that is a recipe for a disaster for all those countires.

As to Germany's withdrawal from the Euro, that is just plain nonsense. There is no way that Germany will relinquish its dominant role in Europe - and a withdrawal from the Euro would lead to that.

The only realistic solution is to keep the "sensible" EU countries - i.e. Finland, Benelux, Austria, France and Germany (and, maybe Slovakia and Estonia) - in the pool and to "expel" the weak countries (i.e. the PIIGS).

If there is no political will to do that then the Euro is doomed - just as, in the long-term the US dollar is.

The world will not see the demise of the Euro within the next five years.

The fact that Greece is having financial problems has very little impact on the Eurozone itself, given the size of this zone in comparison to Greece's economy. What is more likely to happen is one of the following scenarios:

1) Those countries that overspend will be expelled until they get their houses in order. This is perfectly correct since it will make them instill financial discipline via their bugetary mechanisms (the most radical option).

2) A more likely option is that, as the EU is starting to demand, EU member countries, particularly those in the eurozone, will be required to submit their annual budgets to the EU for scrutiny prior to their being implemented. This will be a pre-requesite if weaker eurozone countries (the PIIGS) expect to be bailed out by their stronger counterparts. It will also enable the EU to improve, via better co-ordination, economic policy across the eurozone.