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Ruffer: Martians would be puzzled!
Markets
by Sarah Miloudi on Mar 08, 2013 at 07:41
Ruffer Investment Company's (RIC) Steve Russell and Hamish Baillie said martians would be left baffled by the recent surge in equities.
This week has seen America's Dow Jones breach its all-time high and the UK's FTSE 100 hit a five-year peak.
No doubt this will have pleased bullish investors, particularly since monetary policy is broadly expected to support risk assets for some time to come.
However, Russell and Baillie have pointed to the murky undercurrent masked by the sudden rise in stocks, highlighting that in the US unemployment has almost doubled since the credit crisis and growth remains fragile.
'There was ample scope for a market wobble in February – the Italian election, QE dissenters amongst the Fed’s ranks, the long-awaited downgrade of the UK – but in the end equities continued their march higher and in the UK and the US they are now within touching distance of the dizzy pre -crisis highs of 2007.
'If this was explained to a recently arrived Martian he would no doubt be puzzled – US unemployment has almost doubled since 2007, GDP growth is a third lower and debt as a percentage of GDP is within a whisker of doubling. The market is forward looking but this is extreme,' Russell and Baillie said.
The pair said the support offered from developed central banks would offer an 'eye popping' explanation to puzzled aliens, while earthlings have become accustomed to artificially low interest rates and billions in stimulus being used to prop up growth.
They added: 'Many moons ago we wrote of the moral hazard in monetary policy where risk takers were offered the protection of the Greenspan put or whatever assortment of goodies that might fall out of Dr Bernanke’s helicopter.'
'A similar sequence of events is unfolding now and there are parallels with the years leading up to the credit crisis.'
Turnaround
Against this backdrop, Russell and Baillie appear to have waived goodbye to RIC's difficulties, with the £299 million investment company now up 9.4% over the last six months.
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11 comments so far. Why not have your say?
JanLuthman
Mar 08, 2013 at 08:03
Not the most flattering portrait of Steve Russell.........
report thisPCIAM
Mar 08, 2013 at 08:51
Careful - you might alienate him.
report thisFundador
Mar 08, 2013 at 09:22
The trouble with irrational exuberance is that it makes real money while the mood lasts.
report thisCoeurDeLion87
Mar 08, 2013 at 09:35
Unrealised returns may be commendable but what happens when the disastrous QE and other adventurous cooking of the books (derivatives etc) is finally outed? Listening to people like Bill Gross, Bill Bonner and a few Bill and Bens elsewhere I think there's every likelihood that markets are going to receive a wake up call within the next 18 months that'll make the 23% correction in '87 and the credit crunch to date look like a walk in the park. In the UK the regulator is continuing to disengage with market participants, effectively replacing those with market ability and knowledge with a box-ticking compliant 'wealth' brigade who seem to think that the conveyor belt is the road to utopia.
I suspect the men from Mars could do a better job than the current crazed incumbents but of course we'll never know as the UK faces its own armageddon with social issues as well as financial issues coming to a rather large head.
There has been so much interference from central bankers and regulators (all approved by the political landscape which itself is in a state of crisis) I wonder if anyone has worked out that when the market gets cornered there's usually nowhere to turn to. Expect massive capital erosion hereon and a much higher gold price with a few surprises along the way. Of course many of the 'wealth' brigade are channelling assets into the very areas that should have regulatory health warnings but when everyone is involved in the big lie the only thing to go LONG on are BLINKERS.
report thisJohn Whipple
Mar 08, 2013 at 10:48
@CdeL87 - You are awake to the possibilities.
The agenda that is being pursued is well underway.
Thank you for your illuminating take on it..
report thisKevin Hill
Mar 08, 2013 at 12:28
Fundador; If you can call it real money anymore. I suppose "Fiat" is/was a Real Company...for a while.
CDL87 spot on, but markets will probably defy gravity and pass a few alien spacecraft on the way before crashing somewhere near Roswell.
report thisFundador
Mar 08, 2013 at 12:37
It's 'real' if it appears on the performance reports - or you spend it.
report thisDavid West
Mar 08, 2013 at 13:11
I have been investing in equities since 1984, and put simply, I am now so confused as to what to do I am not doing anything.
I have a sizable portfolio of around 40 funds and trusts that is quite well diversified geographally and to some extent in asset allocation. If I sell what am I going to do with the proceeds?
I also have a good cash holding which I am now too scared to use to purchase more equities at todays frothy market prices. A negative return is being made on cash. Gold will probably go up but who knows for sure?
Governments are trying to avoid a deep global recession but in the process are storing up what might turn out to be massive inflation. If inflation is the only plausable way out of western debt, and I suspect it is, equities look the best bet but it is sometimes better to do nothing than to rush to follow the herd.
report thisPCIAM
Mar 08, 2013 at 13:50
We can't write anything that might be construed as advice. To do so would be to commit a sanctionable offense. Welcome to the counter-intuitive world of C21 financial regulation.
If you want to share opinions on what to do, you could try one of the bulletin boards. Of course, I can't tell you what their addresses are.
report thisMicawber
Mar 08, 2013 at 15:42
We small investors have the great advantage of agility. We can trade pretty much everything with a couple of clicks online. If we bought stuff with market liquidity and small spreads we can get out quickly, so why not carry on making hay while the central banks' sun shines, and sell out a day or two into the next "correction" when it seems to have started?
Then yes, there is the problem of where to put the money - but that is the problem of success......
report thisan elder one
Mar 08, 2013 at 17:04
The bears are upset?
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