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Stewart Cowley: eight things you need to know in Q3 2013
by Stewart Cowley on Sep 09, 2013 at 13:45
'Run on the platform and your next stop could be A&E' read the sign on the East Coast train from North Berwick to Edinburgh.
We couldn’t work out whether it was a piece of advice or a threat. If we ran on the platform would we be in danger of breaking a leg as illustrated by the x-ray (below) or was it that it we ran on the platform an employee of East Coast trains would fracture your leg with an aluminium baseball bat 'jus tah teech yuz a lessun…'?
And so the mixed messaging for the day began but it brought out that no matter how clear the signs are people will misread them.
Which is just a clumsy way getting into thinking about the next couple of months. Things are rarely straight forwards but right now investors appear to have many fundamental extraneous factors playing on their minds.
But to me, to get through this, you probably only have to keep a limited number of things in your head. Here are eight of them:
1) Don't pretend
You don’t have to be an expert on everything – Middle Eastern politics is confusing even to those people who do understand it. Don’t pretend you know what is going to happen. There are too many instant experts these days.
You are only responsible for the decisions you make based upon evidence you have – anything else is noise. Market movements now are dictated by forces that are unseen by investors whether it be actors using off-exchange markets or large capital flows that can’t be measured.
Don’t beat yourself up about it – it’s a feature of how we work these days but the fundamentals WILL assert themselves eventually.
3) The end of QE
Quantitative easing in the US will end. Nothing goes on forever and this now redundant policy should make a graceful exit.
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