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US Election: 11 graphs on how the $10tn club view Obama & Romney
by Dylan Lobo on Nov 02, 2012 at 07:00
Barclays Capital’s US Election survey interviewed influential money managers across the globe responsible for a combined $10 trillion. The results offer a fascinating insight into how to exploit a Barack Obama or Mitt Romney victory.
The surveyThe poll ran between 24 and 26 October and drew 354 respondents, collectively responsible for more than $10 trillion (£6.1 trillion) in assets under management. The respondents included institutional asset managers, hedge funds, banks, corporates and official institutions. The majority of respondents were from North America and Europe and showed a strong divergence in the perceived policy risks depending on which one of the two candidates is elected.
According to the survey the elections have the potential to have a significant impact on the US equities and rates markets. Investors see a more promising growth outlook under a Romney win, despite their concerns about a tighter monetary policy stance. They favour long equities and short bonds as the best way to exploit a Romney win.
Under an Obama win, investors favour bonds and are divided about the direction of equities but are more likely to favour the former over the latter. An Obama victory would be likely to be perceived as preserving the status quo, while a Romney win is more likely to suggest a change of direction and a better growth outlook.
The biggest perceived risk of an Obama centred on tax/regulatory concerns, while the biggest worry under a Romney victory would be a tighter Fed policy.
The following 11 graphs highlight the key findings of the survey.