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Why Rathbone’s Jupiter wealth buy could be very special
by Dylan Lobo on Apr 01, 2014 at 11:23
‘Our new forecasts reflect the increase in AuM in Q214 and Q314, assuming marginal revenues are similar to Rathbone’s and the marginal profit contribution pre-central costs and migration costs is 50% of additional revenues.’
Meanwhile JP Morgan Cazenove’s Rae Maile and Edward Morris reiterated their overweight on Jupiter, believing the firm got a good price for a business which is not essential to its prospects.
‘We estimate that the profit contribution to Jupiter will have been in the region of £2 million per annum compared with our 2014 estimated Ebitda of £160 million,’ the duo pointed out. ‘This is, we believe, a more than acceptable exit price for a business which was not core to Jupiter.’
RBC Capital’s Peter Lenardos, who has an outperform rating on Jupiter, believes the deal will prove to be far more profitable to Rathbones than Jupiter.
‘We believe this is a positive step for towards streamlining Jupiter’s business as it seeks to build out its international distribution platform,’ Lenardos said.
‘Further we believe the AuM will be more profitable for Rathbone than they were for Jupiter as this business was not a focus for Jupiter, whereas the asset under management are part of Rathbone's core business activity.'
Lenardos believes the cash Jupiter receives from the transaction should allow Jupiter to continue to strengthen its balance sheet and should support expanding capital returns to shareholders.
‘We now believe a special dividend concurrent with 2014 results in early 2015 is likely, as opposed to extraordinary capital returns commencing from the end of 2015.’
Numis’ David McCann, who has an add rating on Jupiter, predicts the majority of proceeds from the deal with be returned to shareholders through a special dividend.
‘We would expect around two-thirds of the final consideration received to be distributable to Jupiter shareholders (after deal costs, closure costs, taxes etc…), so there is potential for incremental 4-6p of special dividend at the FY14 stage (in addition to other special dividends already forecast),’ McCann said.
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