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Woodford: Tesco's woes run deeper than the consumer squeeze

by Sarah Miloudi on Apr 16, 2012 at 08:03

Woodford: Tesco's woes run deeper than the consumer squeeze

Neil Woodford, head of investments at Invesco Perpetual, has warned that Tesco's woes run deeper than just the squeeze on consumer spending, as the supermarket gets set to report its lowest profit growth in seven years.

Woodford (pictured), who until recently had held the stock across his portfolios for some 20 years, said he fears the grocery giant has not made the most of its grand expansion plans and is worried its rivals may seize the opportunity to steal back market share.

The fund manager said that until recently he believed that supermarkets like Tesco had strong defensive qualities and would prove resilient to the squeeze on household spending.

But now he is concerned that wider difficulties may be having an impact on the business, particularly after previous shareholder reports exposed signs of fragility.

Writing in a column in the Telegraph Woodford said: 'Tesco's Christmas trading update earlier this year suggested I may have placed too much confidence int he business' ability to cope with the economic headwinds.

'Tesco's problems are, in my opinion, not just down to the difficult consumer environment.  With the benefit of hindsight it has become clearer to me that some of the company's investment decisions in recent years have not created the value they should have.'

Woodford, who runs the Invesco Perpetual Income and High Income funds as well as the closed-end Edinburgh Investment Trust, began selling out of the stock in February and said that in the past few days he has offloaded his holding entirely.

Woodford said he had redistributed the proceeds across other stocks core to his portfolios.

The shrewd fund manager's concerns come as Tesco boss Philip Clarke prepares to post a dismal set of figures to investors.  Tesco's latest numbers are expected to reveal the slowest rate of profit growth seen at the supermarket chain in seven years, with annual profits expected to come in at around £3.64 billion.

This represents an increase of just 2.8% on the previous year's numbers, analysts said.

Tesco has in recent years moved into non-food retailing and has built larger stores in order to house its increased product range.  But its UK business, which accounts for roughly two thirds of the group's profits, is still suffering despite this diversification, its results are expected to show. 

3 comments so far. Why not have your say?

Adam Lycett

Apr 16, 2012 at 09:24

Tescos market share in the uk is still 30% it gets very hard to go higher without the CCs breathing down their neck the US expansion is great idea tesco when tesco get their teething troubles sorted in the us they can grow revenue at a faster pace due to the lack of regulation. But in the short term attacking an enemy on their own soil is dangerous a counter attack from wal mart was inevitable. But given time the US operations will bear fruit. The bank is the scarey one but i am assuming the management at tesco are not clowns they are world beaters. They will have put fire walls in place to stop any losses from the bank blowing the group. I am i big bull on tesco i have seen the extent of it eastern european expansion its amazing they are not a company in terminal decline margins will be squeezed in the short term but for a fund like invesco high income to pull from tesco when yields are at 4% and forward looking to be 5.2% to 6% and dividend distribution is only 48% of income seems like a major schoolboy error to me. The stock at this price is a buy at the very worst a hold but defo not a strong sell. Why do invesco high income need the cash so badly?? It aint because of better opportunitys than tesco selling at 8xs income.

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steve green

Apr 16, 2012 at 13:22

i used to spend about £90 a week in tesco,s it now about £70 why ? 2 for 1 offers, take a loaf of bread 2 for £2 or £1.25 each, as a family we don,t eat 2 loaves a week i object to paying £1.25 because if they can sell 2 for £2 and still make a profit why not sell 1 loaf for a £1, if look around the stores there loads of examples like this, so now i dont buy any 2 for 1 offers

All the average consumer wants is a fair deal a loaf for a £1

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Spartacus

Apr 16, 2012 at 16:43

Those 2 for 1 offers. Bogofs as they're known in the trade are actually financed by the manufacturer not the supermarket...

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